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If you're a recreational sports bettor and you intend to stay that way, this article may not be for you. As a bettor who does it all for fun, you've probably already attained your goal, and you're content as it is. On the other hand, if you're a bettor with dreams of making money off your hobby, and possibly going as far as to make a living off it one day, read on.
Before we discuss anything, let's set one thing straight: you will never become a long-term winner at your sports betting ventures if you bet with the masses, using some minimal handicapping and a gut-feeling. It is impossible to make a long term profit like that because of the way the system is set to work. In order to ever make money on sports betting, you need to ride the hidden value. In order to be able to find such "hidden value, you once again need to have a thorough understanding of how the system works.
The bookmaker is at the heart of the whole operation. He sets the lines, and his main goal is to balance every bet as close to 50-50 as he can. Balancing a bet means to try to get an equal number of bettors on both its sides. That way, the bookmaker can make sure he'll get some risk-free money flowing in, all according to plan. He pays out winners with what the losers leave in the box, and keeps the vig for himself. Certainly, a perfectly balanced bet is impossible to achieve, but if he gets it close-enough, even if it goes wrong for him and the winner side is more numerous, he'll be able to pay winners out of the vig and still have enough left for himself. Avoiding that situation though, is the book's top priority.
He'll do anything to keep the bet balanced in his favor. He doesn't mind getting too many people on the losing side, but he does getting too many bettors on the winner's. The balancing of the bet is done via the instruments available for the bookmaker: tampering with the lines (to make one side or the other look more attractive for bettors) and adjusting the vig. Sometimes it so happens that the bookmaker gets a seemingly unstoppable influx of what he calls "square money on one side of the bet. A strong favorite playing on the road against a home underdog would be a good example in this sense. Even though statistically it's clear the favorite is not really a favorite ATS at all, the squares are not deterred by such meager facts. They flock onto one side leaving the bookmaker with two possibilities. He can either take bets as they come and cover them himself. This option carries huge potential rewards for the bookmaker, but in the same time the risks are pretty big too. Therefore, bookies prefer not to make use of this technique, but rather shift their spreads around in an attempt to balance. This will lead to some serious value being generated on the other side of the bet, which can and will be exploited by sharks. The bookmaker takes the "sharp factor into consideration too, so you'd better keep your eyes peeled for the hidden value because once out there it's not likely to last for long.
Reverse handicapping games is one way to locate hidden value. Analyze a match-up not only from a head-on perspective, but also from the bookmakers point of view. Now that you know what he's after and how he can achieve his goals, you'll be able to see things in an entirely different light. Pay more attention to prop bets (like totals and heck knows what else the book will come up with). These bets often hide a lot of value on account of the fact that they are less fine-tuned by the book. Betting on unpopular games bears value for the same reason. The bottom line on the whole successful sports-bettor issue is: never go where the masses go. There's always negative EV on that side of the bet. The least you can do to secure yourself an edge is to build yourself positive EV every which way you can.
When it comes to positive EV, the poker rakeback is the best example of a huge edge. It can turn a slight loser into a winner without any supplementary efforts involved.
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