Aston Villa v Newcastle Betting Tips
Eddie Howe was the messiah last season when Newcastle United ended their trophy drought by beating Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final. The Magpies had finally won silverware and there was hope that there would be more success coming into this season. However, the transfer saga involving Alexander Isak created problems and there was also the fact that forward Yoane Wissa has spent most of the season being injured.
Therefore, the FA Cup is the only competition that Newcastle can realistically win this season, even if they have been handed an easy game against Qarabag to reach the last sixteen of the Champions League. They've been given a difficult opponent in the form of an Aston Villa side who are the 2.15 favourites to win this clash in ninety minutes.
As for the visitors, they are currently trading at odds of 3.20. That gives them an implied probability of just over 30% that they claim a success. You can also bet on the To Qualify market where Newcastle are 2.20 compared to Aston Villa's price of 1.61. If anything, the most generous price of the two is the latter.
Villa have won eight of their twelve home matches this term. They enjoyed an eleven-match winning run in all competitions between early November and late December, although there have been a few recent wobbles. This includes 1-0 home defeats against Everton and Brentford where the Villans struggled to break down deep-lying defences intent on shutting out the opposition.
Last weekend's 1-1 draw at Bournemouth wasn't a bad outcome against in-form opposition, although some punters won't be feeling too confident that they win here. Even so, they did recently claim a 2-0 Premier League win at St James' Park thanks to an early goal from Emi Buendia before Ollie Watkins capped the three points with a late finish.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies make it a 60% chance that we see three or more goals scored in this clash. We need to remember it's an FA Cup clash which needs to be decided on the night. It has to be declared that the previous five Aston Villa domestic encounters have seen Under 2.5 Goals come in again. There was a recent 1-0 home defeat against Brentford before a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth.
Villa's previous FA Cup round win was a 2-1 success at Tottenham, with Newcastle's FA Cup third round tie ending in fireworks. A late Anthony Gordon penalty sent the tie into extra-time and the overall score ended up 3-3 before a penalty shootout win for the Magpies. Before Tuesday's clash at Tottenham, there had been three successive defeats for Eddie Howe's side.
All of those three games have seen Over 3.5 Goals and two of the games involved Over 4.5 Goals. However, this was preceded by a spate of Under 2.5 Goals matches.
BTTS
The BTTS price is trading shorter than Over 2.5 Goals. This being an FA Cup tie means that we might see both teams adopt an attacking approach. Although Newcastle have lost several recent clashes, they have found the net in the past four encounters. The game before this came against Aston Villa where the Magpies drew a blank.
This was the same in the opening game of the season where both teams played out a goalless draw. It was actually a game that Newcastle dominated although the respective sides have seen their campaign go in opposite directions.
We're leaning towards both sides finding the net. Newcastle are under pressure to deliver and their defence is so porous right now that we think it's pretty likely that they will allow Aston Villa to score at least one goal.
The home side have some dangerous attacking players on the pitch and that includes Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins for the home side, while Jadon Sancho can also make an impact. The same applies to the visitors who have Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa looking to fire their team into the last sixteen of the FA Cup.
First Goalscorer
Bruno Guimaraes is back in the fold for Newcastle and could be on penalty duties for this game. The Brazilian had previously notched in three successive Premier League encounters against Burnley, Crystal Palace and Leeds, with the midfielder often the driving force of the team although he also has the propensity to get a yellow card. He has been booked in three of the past five encounters.
Harvey Barnes is having a solid enough season despite his team's shortcomings. He now has twelve for the season and the former Leicester man can cause problems with his pace out wide. Yoane Wissa hasn't quite worked out since a big money move from Brentford although the Congolese player could make an impact here.
The most popular Aston Villa first scorer option is likely to be Morgan Rogers and he recovered from a slow scoring start to the campaign to reach double figures when opening the scoring at Bournemouth last weekend. The midfielder always seems to get into strong attacking positions and he has two in three at the time of writing.
Ollie Watkins hasn't achieved the numbers that he was desiring at the beginning of the campaign, although he did score in three consecutive matches over the festive period. Perhaps there is more to come from the England hopeful.