The Race to Dubai is very much on the home straight now and soon enough we will know who has landed one of the biggest prizes in Golf. For a long time it seemed that the emerging Stockport golfer, Tommy Fleetwood, had things sewn up. However, back to back wins for fellow Englishman Justin Rose have made things interesting.

It isn’t technically a two-horse race though and the likes of Sergio Garcia and Tyrell Hatton are among those players who could yet claim glory. That said, with Garcia the third favourite at 33/1, in reality it should be one of the two market leaders in the outright winner betting who land the prize.

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The Race to Dubai replaced the Oder of Merit in 2009 and is similar in format to the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup. Points are accumulated throughout the entire season but things move up a gear with the Final Series events, of which there are now three.

Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson have been the dominant forces in recent years, winning the past five Races to Dubai between them. Those two are well out of the running this year, however, and so we could well see a new name on the trophy.

Justin Rose actually won the Order of Merit, as it was then known, back in 2007. Much has changed since then but Rose is now the second favourite in the Race to Dubai outright winner betting at best betting odds of 7/4 with William Hill.

Just a few weeks ago he appeared to have no chance but wins at the WGC HSBC Champions and the Turkish Airlines Open have seen him surge into contention. The latter is the first of this year’s Final Series tournaments and Rose’s win there saw him move to within 135,000 ranking points of his compatriot Fleetwood.

Rose, the world number six, has played only half the number of events of Fleetwood, which highlights how well he has done. That said, world number 19 Fleetwood has undoubtedly had a year to remember. He ended 2016 ranked 99th but moved as high as 14th following his win at the Open de France and top 10 finish at the Irish Open. His season highlight, though, may have been finishing fourth at the US Open and he is the odds-on favourite for Race to Dubai Glory, despite Rose’s late charge.

The 26 year old is available at best online betting odds of 4/9 with Bet365 and aside from his current lead there is one big reason for those short odds. Whilst Rose has elected to skip the Nedbank in South Africa this week, the Race to Dubai leader is in the field. Moreover, Fleetwood, playing at a course that should suit his game, is among the favourites to win, priced at 18/1 with Bet365. His form is solid right now, rather than spectacular, following a tie for 20th at the WGC event and a tie for 23rd last time out in Turkey. He knows that two strong finishes will almost certainly be enough to see him home and overall we think that he should have enough to get the job done.

Rose knows he will probably have to win in Dubai in the final event of the season to stand a chance. Even if he does that, however, it may not be enough and given Fleetwood is playing solidly right now we can’t see the 2007 winner quite managing to pull off the miracle comeback.

As said, however, this isn’t a two-horse race and some optimistic – or loyal (or mad!) – golf betting fans may fancy a punt on Garcia, Hatton or even someone lower down the betting (the field are 500/1 bar!).

We really don’t see it, however, with Garcia currently third in the rankings, around a million points behind Fleetwood. The current leader is the man we predict will hold on and with four consecutive top 25 finishes, including a sixth at the Italian Open, we don’t think Fleetwood will flounder.


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