Unless you’ve been recently living in a cave, it won’t have escaped your attention that there will be yet another General Election in the United Kingdom, with the big vote scheduled for Thursday 12 December, with the nation going to the polls shortly before Christmas.
Despite the several polls being created in a bid to calculate what is likely to happen during the 2019 General Election, the bookmaker odds are often an accurate barometer of what is likely to happen and this article explains the different betting markets and looks at the latest prices.
In 2017, the Conservative Party won 317 seats which might not have been enough to record a majority government although it was still 55 seats more than the Labour Party managed.
The bookmakers aren’t expecting the latter to close the gap this time around, with the Tories trading at 2/13 to land the most seats during the 2019 General Election and it would be a major surprise if they weren’t successful here.
Labour have some work to do and will aim to win some of the marginal Tory seats, although they’re an 11/2 chance to bank the most seats. The Liberal Democrat Party would surely need a minor miracle and they’re trading at 40/1.
While the Conservative Party are strong favourites to win the most seats in December, it doesn’t naturally follow that they will have a majority government in place and the bookies actually make this odds-against at 11/10 which implies there is less likely that it happens compared to it actually happening.
Perhaps Boris Johnson will have to contend with a Conservative Minority government which is what happened after Theresa May called a General Election in 2017, with that outcome trading at 5/1 and it will be sure to interest many punters looking for some value.
However, the bookies regard a Labour Minority as slightly more likely at odds of 9/2 and there’s the distinct possibility that the opposition party could work out a way of working in tandem with the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party in order to oust the Tories.
Indeed, a Labour-Lib Dem-SNP coalition is available at 11/1 and it appears as though all options are open as far as this is concerned, while a Conservative – DUP coalition can’t be ruled out and that is trading at 12/1.
If you’re feeling optimistic that Labour will land a majority after the next General Election, then odds of 12/1 are on offer, while a coalition between the Conservative Party and the Brexit Party is available at 14/1.
There are literally only three realistic candidates who can become Prime Minister straight after the Election and Boris Johnson is a 4/11 chance to cling on to power which looks heavily likely.
However, if the tide of popular opinion starts to change, then Corbyn is available at 5/2 and Jo Swinson could also attract more votes and is currently trading at 20/1.
We regularly see a General Election in the United Kingdom leading to a new Prime Minister being installed and perhaps this will be the case in 2019, with Jeremy Corbyn currently the 2/1 favourite.
It’s far from clear whether Corbyn will ever become PM considering that it would require some kind of Labour government to land power and others might consider that another Conservative MP takes the mantle considering that the last three positions have been held by David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
Interestingly, former speaker John Bercow is actually available at 11/1 and he’s been very outspoken about Brexit since stepping down from his position in the House of Commons, while Nigel Farage is incredibly available at 16/1 and clearly represents the face of Brexit.
Total Seats – Over / Under
The Conservative Party landed 317 seats at the 2017 General Election and the bookies think that it could be a similar outcome when the country goes to the polls this time around, which does beg the question as to why we’re having another election.
If you think that the Tories will get less than 319.5 seats, then you can get odds of 10/11, while the Over 319.5 quote is the same price and it comes down to whether you feel as though the Conservatives will improve or go backwards this time around.
The Labour Party enjoyed a 30-seat increase at the last UK General Election and perhaps they will make similar gains this time around. If you think that Corbyn can lead his party to 213 seats or more, then odds of 10/11 are available and they did manage 262 seats last time out.
However, the big problem for Labour is that many of their voters might now look to defect to the Liberal Democrats who offer a viable alternative. The Lib Dems are diametrically opposed to Brexit and that will appeal to Remainers.
Jo Swinson is quickly getting her ducks in a row and even money is available that the Liberal Democrats can land at least 41 seats, with this price looking reasonably attractive.
The Scottish National Party actually lost 21 seats at the 2017 General Election, although the bookies are anticipating that Nicola Sturgeon’s party will bounce back this time around.
You can get 5/6 that they are successful in landing 51 seats although that would leave little margin for error when it comes to the voting public in Scotland.