Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Match Result
There’s a 40% chance of Atletico Madrid winning this Champions League match according to the latest betting odds. However, in terms of landing a victory in the tie, the bookies afford them only a 30% chance of going through. It’s hardly a surprise considering that a one-goal victory will simply force the tie into extra-time against difficult opponents who are the reigning champions.
Real Madrid came from behind to land a 3-2 victory at Manchester City in the previous round of the competition before a more comfortable 3-1 win in front of their own fans. Carlo Ancelotti’s side seem to have the knowhow when it comes to this competition and they had the better of the first leg encounter.
Atleti now have a conundrum. They are naturally quite a defensive side under Diego Simeone although the bottom line is that they will have to come out of their shell at some stage to score at least one goal. Home form is pretty strong considering that they haven’t tasted defeat at the Metropolitano in La Liga this term, recording ten wins and four draws.
Twenty-five goals have been scored in those fourteen games and just eight have been conceded. Therefore, a tight defence might be capable of once again keeping Kylian Mbappe and Vini Junior quiet, although there are other attacking threats and it was Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz who were able to find the net last week.
The draw would be enough for Real and that outcome is trading at an attractive price, with the visitors likely to find the net at least once and that would leave their opponents needing to score twice. The draw price might start to shorten quickly In-Play if the game starts off in a slow fashion.
Goals Under/Over
There were Over 2.5 Goals in the first leg of this last sixteen encounter and the bookies anticipate that the same thing will happen here. We are seeing this outcome trading at 1.66 although we think that Under 2.5 Goals might be a better option at a much bigger 2.20. After all, the sides had previously played out a series of 1-1 draws and we can’t get away from Atleti’s defensive mindset at home.
Diego Simeone has a difficult situation. His team can ill-afford to go a goal down in this second leg and trail 3-1 on aggregate, although the home outfit do need to try and find a way to score and restore parity. There’s no urgency to score straight away and we might well see Real being defensively organised and looking to exploit their opponents on the counter-attack.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is trading at a shorter price than Over 2.5 Goals, with the bookmakers anticipating that both teams will find the net at least once in the Spanish capital. The fact that the derby rivals are in the habit of playing out a succession of 1-1 draws supports the argument that the net will bulge at both ends, although it’s far from a certainty considering that this game can take a number of potential routes.
We know that Real Madrid nearly always find the net in their matches and it won’t be a case that they’ll sit back and defend that one-goal advantage. Ancelotti knows that a goal for Los Merengues will leave the opposition needing two and one can’t help but feel that the explosive pace of Kylian Mbappe can cause problems if the home side move forward as one.
Should Real score the opening goal, then Atletico will need to roll the dice in search of goals and that could lead to BTTS Yes happening. The previous two Real Madrid clashes against Manchester City involved the net bulging at both ends and perhaps it will descend into a free-for-all.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe backers were disappointed in the first leg when the Frenchman was nullified although he might find that chances come his way in this clash. The former PSG forward might find space opening up as the game progresses and he’s managed to notch seventeen goals in La Liga this season. He was also able to score a hat-trick against Manchester City in the previous round.
It was Rodrygo who opened the scoring last time out, with the Brazilian ending his barren run with an important goal for his team. He often seems to be the man for the Champions League considering that the Real forward scored twice away to Brest during the group stage and he also bagged a brace against Salzburg.
Julian Alvarez seems to enjoy scoring against Real Madrid, having bagged an audacious Panenka penalty at the Bernabeu for Atletico and the former Manchester City man is on ten goals for the season. He also appears likely to play the full game and was the only forward not substituted in the first leg clash. Antoine Griezmann is the other player worthy of consideration and the Frenchman has the knack of being in the right place to score.