Eddie Howe was right to state that Newcastle United would have been deserving winners in the Champions League last sixteen first leg encounter against Barcelona. The Magpies fashioned a host of chances throughout the game and looked as though they were going to take a one-goal advantage to the Nou Camp for the second game.
However, a 1-1 scoreline means that an uphill struggle is on the cards. Newcastle have been installed at odds of 3.40 to qualify for the quarter finals, giving them a roughly 30% chance of going through. It's a tall order when you consider their largely poor away form and they'll be entering the lion's den to face one of the strongest teams in Europe.
Barcelona v Newcastle Betting Tips
Barcelona are now in the driving seat to set up a Champions League quarter final encounter against Atletico Madrid, with the latter likely to progress at the expense of Spurs. Hansi Flick's side were able to escape St James' Park with a 1-1 draw and will now be confident that they can get the job done in front of their own fans.
It's not an easy task for Newcastle considering that Barca have registered thirteen straight wins at the Nou Camp in La Liga. They have scored a sum total of forty-one goals and conceded just six. This ground is a fortress for a Catalan side whose only aberration at home came in a Champions League group game when losing 2-1 to Paris Saint-Germain.
There will be lots of Champions League accumulators featuring Barcelona considering they are a 1.57 shot, with these odds implying that there's a roughly 65% chance that Flick's side land a normal time victory. Their last home success at the time of writing was a 3-0 Copa del Rey success against Atletico Madrid and that came after 4-1 and 3-0 victories against Villarreal and Levante.
Even so, Eddie Howe will remind his players that they were the dominant force in the first leg. They enjoyed four shots on target compared to their opponents' two, with the Magpies forcing a sum total of nine corners and they will look to offer a scoring threat. They surely can't play too defensively against opposition who will see a lot of the ball and look to make their possession-based game count.
Perhaps confidence can be drawn thanks to a 1-1 draw at Paris Saint-Germain in late January, with Newcastle having recently enjoyed three straight wins on the road against Qarabag, Aston Villa and Tottenham.
Goals Under/Over
The Over 2.5 Goals odds were trading at a relatively short price for the first leg at St James' Park although the game remained goalless for the majority before each side managed to score a late goal. The Unders backers were rewarded for going against the grain and it might be more of the same when the teams meet at the Nou Camp.
There's so much at stake and these short odds for Over 2.5 Goals largely come down to the fact that Barcelona often cover this line singlehandedly at home. In their past eight home matches in all competitions, the Catalan side have notched three times or more. They have arguably the most devastating attacking lineup in Europe and Newcastle might struggle to stem the tide.
Newcastle games have regularly yielded three or more goals and the eleven matches before that 1-1 draw with Barcelona saw Over 2.5 Goals land each time. It explains why the bookies think that this outcome is strongly likely to happen.
BTTS
Let's face it, it will be the ultimate achievement if Newcastle stop Barcelona scoring over ninety minutes at the Nou Camp. It's a simple fact that the Catalan side always find the net in front of their own fans. They often concede too and it comes down to whether the Magpies are going to be involved in yet another BTTS Yes match.
It's now been an incredible thirteen Newcastle matches where both teams have found the net. That's quite a run of games and serves to highlight that the Magpies are regularly taking an attack-minded approach. By quirk of fate, they have recently had five consecutive matches at home although they also scored at Spurs, Qarabag, Aston Villa and Manchester City.
Barcelona's games have been a mix of BTTS Yes and BTTS No. If we focus more specifically on their Nou Camp encounters, Hansi Flick's side regularly run a tight defensive ship. They have achieved bloodless victories against Levante and Atletico Madrid in recent weeks and only conceded once when beating Villarreal 4-1.
Barca regularly hog the ball and starve the opposition when it comes to scoring chances. If you think BTTS No will happen, then you can pair it with a home win in order to secure a much bigger price.
First Goalscorer
Robert Lewandowski lasted seventy minutes on Tyneside and he may well be rested for Sunday's clash against Sevilla in a bid to be at his devastating best in the second leg. The Pole has had an injury-hit campaign, although he still has seventeen on the board and could end up with the golden touch in front of goal.
Lamine Yamal recently pilfered a hat-trick against Villarreal and he's scoring on a frequent basis right now. There was the winner away to Athletic Bilbao and there was that last-gasp penalty at St James' Park. The young Spaniard has twenty for the campaign and he was on the scoresheet on five consecutive occasions between the end of January and early February.
Newcastle started the first leg encounter with Will Osula leading the line and it was interesting that Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa weren't even used off the bench. Anthony Elanga could exploit the Barcelona rearguard with his pace, although Harvey Barnes is the player who has more of a scoring touch.
Anthony Gordon might be used in the second leg and the forward often gets into good scoring positions, with Sandro Tonali also posing a threat in the attacking midfield position.
