Benfica v Real Madrid Betting Tips
There are some attractive Champions League play-off ties taking place on Tuesday 17 February, with Benfica clashing with Real Madrid in a first leg encounter. Jose Mourinho saw his team claim a 4-2 victory thanks to an Anatoliy Trubin header in the dying embers of the clash, with the goalkeeper being sent up for a free-kick with the Portuguese side needing a goal in order to go through.
Leaving aside the keeper heroics, there was everything to like about Benfica's performance. After Kylian Mbappe had given the visitors the lead, a brace from Andreas Schjelderup helped Mourinho's men turn the game on its head. The match also saw Rodrygo and Raul Ascencio sent off in the 90th minute which means that the pair will be missing for this first leg contest.
Therefore, Benfica's odds of 4.10 might make plenty of appeal. The Eagles might have only won three of their eight group games, but they had double the number of shots compared to their opponents. They managed twelve on target and produced a smart game plan considering that only 33% of possession was enjoyed over the ninety minutes.
Can we trust Real Madrid to land a victory? They did suffer two other defeats during the Champions League group stage, with an over-reliance on Kylian Mbappe to score goals. There are injury doubts over Jude Bellingham coming into this encounter and it's hard to believe that Los Merengues are any kind of value at odds-on considering they might be missing a number of key players.
We think Benfica are very capable of avoiding defeat and they recently claimed a 4-0 success against Estrela, with the defence looking tight during a goalless draw at Tondela. There could be some merit in backing Benfica and the draw on the double chance market, especially as Real Madrid don't need to win.
Goals Under/Over
The teams recently played out a 4-2 scoreline and there are odds of 1.57 that we see three or more goals scored during the ninety minutes at the Estadio da Luz. This implies a 64% chance of Over 2.5 happening, although we might see a different story when it comes to this play-off encounter.
After all, the previous match between the sides was a winner-takes-all kind of affair. Benfica needed a victory to stand any chance of progressing, with Real Madrid chasing three points in search of a top-eight spot. We might see the teams both treading a bit more carefully this time around, with Under 2.5 Goals probably offering better value.
It's not a game that Real Madrid desperately need to win. A victory might be achieved by a slender margin and the Spanish side might rely on the pace of Mbappe to get the goal that they're looking for.
BTTS
Both teams to score is trading at an even shorter price than Over 2.5 Goals. There's a 65% chance of both sides finding the net according to the Champions League betting sites. There have been plenty of recent Real Madrid clashes which have ended in BTTS Yes.
Going back to 10 December when Los Merengues lost against Manchester City, ten of the thirteen games featuring the La Liga side have ended with a BTTS Yes outcome. All thirteen of the matches have seen Real find the net. They nearly always notch at least one goal and it therefore might come down to whether Benfica can score.
Jose Mourinho will want to cede possession against his former club and go on the counter-attack along with profiting from set pieces. The goal numbers were fairly modest in Benfica games before that 4-2 win. The Portuguese side had managed six goals across seven matches and conceded ten.
We think there's a case for BTTS No at the prices. Don't be too swayed by that 4-2 scoreline considering that Benfica had nothing to lose. They certainly want to remain in this tie going to the Bernabeu and might be more measured than the previous clash.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe broke the deadlock in Portugal on Wednesday 28 January and the Frenchman has been regularly on the scoresheet this term. Indeed, the striker bagged a brace against Benfica and that was the fifth consecutive match in which the Les Bleus captain was able to find the net. He could be a definite pick when it comes to a Benfica v Real Madrid Bet Builder in terms of anytime scorer.
He has forty-two for the season and Mbappe might be unplayable for the Benfica defence who will have to defend deep to avoid letting the player break through the ranks. There were three consecutive braces against Monaco, Villarreal and Benfica in recent encounters, with the player also powering home a hat-trick away to Kairat Almaty and four goals were notched in Olympiakos.
Andreas Schjelderup will be turning out at the World Cup for Norway, although that recent brace against Real Madrid was the first time that he'd found the net since the end of August. Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis is the real sharp shooter of the team, with that penalty against Los Merengues being his twenty-first of the season.