Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
Diego Simeone will have been relatively satisfied with the Champions League play-off draw. Atletico Madrid were seeded but could easily have met a side like Borussia Dortmund or Benfica. Therefore, Club Brugge was a good outcome and the Spanish La Liga side have been installed as the warm favourites to enjoy a first leg victory in Belgium.
Atleti continue to be one of the strongest teams in Spain, with the side currently sitting third in the La Liga standings. However, they have been far from convincing on the road domestically. Only three of their eleven away games have seen them land a maximum haul and perhaps there could be some merit in opposing the visitors.
Club Brugge have been a surprise European package this term. They opened with a 4-1 victory against Monaco and then gave a good account of themselves when losing 2-1 away to Atalanta. Although the Belgian side were dealt a 4-0 defeat by Bayern Munich, there was a pulsating 3-3 draw with Barcelona which demonstrated their attacking prowess.
That game saw Ivan Leko's side take the lead against their Catalan opponents on no less than three occasions. The attacking approach ultimately earned them a point and perhaps the same approach will be adopted in this clash. There's no point going to the Spanish capital with a deficit from the first leg, with the Belgian side knowing some kind of advantage will give them a fighting chance.
Atletico are trading as odds-on favourites, with their odds of 1.90 giving them a slightly greater than 50% chance that the Spanish side will claim a first leg win. However, they are 1.20 go through over the two legs and this is a team with vastly more European experience than opponents who conceded no less than seventeen goals across their eight group games.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is available at 1.66 and we can see this outcome happening. Club Brugge and Atletico Madrid were both involved in high-scoring matches during the Champions League group phase. In fact, there were thirty goals scored across each of their eight games. If this sort of ratio continues, it might be worth considering the Over 3.5 Goals price although there are some mitigating factors.
In the group stage, it's far easier to go forward knowing that there's little jeopardy, especially in the earlier matches. However, this is the first leg encounter of a knockout tie and Atletico Madrid might be looking to adopt a more defensive game plan knowing that a draw would suit them well in terms of qualification. There's no away goals rule and the visitors might not be in a hurry to go forth and attack.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds for this Champions League encounter are trading at 1.57. It's hardly a surprise when both teams had an average of four goals per game during the group stage. Atletico Madrid found the back of the net seventeen times and conceded fifteen. Club Brugge scored fifteen and conceded seventeen.
However, it's interesting to note that Atletico Madrid away games in La Liga have been altogether lower-scoring affairs. Across eleven road trips, Simeone's side have found the net twelve times and only conceded on ten occasions. Therefore, they might approach this clash with an air of caution, knowing that they can inflict maximum damage in the second leg.
On the flip side, Club Brugge scored three times against Barcelona. Perhaps this was simply a more open game against opposition who simply aim to achieve a higher goal total than their opponent on a regular basis. However, the Belgian side have shown that they can mix it with top quality opposition.
We think BTTS Yes is likely to happen as Club Brugge really need to try and win the game to stand any chance of making progress with this tie.
First Goalscorer
Alexander Sorloth is Atletico Madrid's top scorer this season and the Norwegian has been in good form recently. Since scoring a brace for his country against Estonia in mid-November, the forward has notched ten goals in total and has twelve for the season. He was recently on target as part of a 3-0 La Liga win over Mallorca and also found the net against Bodo/Glimt.
Argentine Thiago Almada also scored against Mallorca and he was on target against Real Betis in the Copa del Rey. Julian Alvarez is another Argentine with an eye for goal although the former Manchester City man has been struggling to find the net in recent months. Since scoring at PSV as part of a 3-2 win in early December, it's been a goal drought.
Carlos Forbs was the man who scored a brace against Barcelona during that amazing 3-3 draw in November, although perhaps Nicolo Tresoldi is the player who can get on the scoresheet here. The youngster is having a breakthrough season for Club Brugge and recently made it ten for the season when bagging against Standard Liege.
Aleksandar Stankovic is another youngster who has developed an eye for goal and he has racked up six goals since 14 December, with the Serbian hoping to make an impact for his exciting team against Atleti.