Liverpool v PSG Match Result
The match odds make for interesting reading. While Liverpool are 1.22 to qualify for the last eight of the Champions League, they are trading at 2.15 to actually win on the night. The disparity between these prices can be explained by the fact that the Reds don’t actually need a victory in order to reach a likely quarter final tie against Aston Villa.
Having secured a 1-0 success at the Parc des Princes, a draw or better will be enough to go through on aggregate. The match odds still suggest that Arne Slot’s side have a 46% chance of landing a victory, although the evidence of the first leg won’t necessarily fill punters with confidence that a home win is on the cards.
PSG are hovering around the 3.00 mark odds-wise, with the French side having an implied probability of 33% when it comes to getting a victory. Luis Enrique’s team will surely cause a few problems for their opponents, although the danger is that conceding the first goal of the game against the English Premier League leaders will leave them with a real mountain to climb.
Paris had an XG of 1.78 last week compared to their opponents’ 0.27 and will feel a sense of injustice considering that they attacked at will, especially in the first half where they had a goal disallowed and there could also have been a red card for Ibrahima Konate in that period of the game.
It's going to be an intriguing encounter, with Liverpool looking to calm the tie down and ease themselves over the line. The draw is clearly a potential contender considering that this will be enough for a home side who have arguably the best goalkeeper in the world considering how brilliantly Alisson Becker performed last time out.
Goals Under/Over
The goals are expected to come at Anfield on Tuesday. There’s a 65% chance that we’ll see three or more scored according to the latest odds, with Liverpool being a free-scoring side in normal circumstances, even if Arne Slot has modified the Jurgen Klopp version of the side. Defensively they are tighter and know that a clean sheet will ensure they go through.
However, it might be easier said than done against a team who had ten shots on target at the Parc des Princes along with 70% possession. They also had a gigantic fourteen corners, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia having recently arrived at PSG from Napoli and the Georgian is clearly a difficult customer to handle.
As mentioned, they scored a combined ten goals against Brest in two games during the previous round, while Liverpool average more than two goals per home match in the Premier League and they will have their usual cutting-edge in a bid to take the game away from their opponents.
BTTS
According to the Champions League betting sites, there’s a roughly 66% chance that both teams will find the net in this clash. That’s despite the first leg encounter ending in a 1-0 victory to Liverpool. It was the only big chance that the Reds had throughout the ninety minutes, although Paris had three of those and they drew some world-class saves from Alisson Becker.
PSG have to score at least once in order to stand any chance of going through to the next round and Luis Enrique’s side only know how to play one way. This is a team who have scored sixty-six goals in their twenty-four Ligue 1 encounters, with Ousmane Dembele having pilfered eighteen this term which makes him the top scorer domestically.
As for Liverpool, they are certainly not going to park the bus in their attempt to go through. The focus will be on creating chances in transition, with Mohamed Salah generally someone who scored goals on a regular basis at home. There is an argument for BTTS No in the sense that Alisson Becker might not have to make anything like the number of saves that helped the Reds achieve a famous victory last week.
First Goalscorer
Mohamed Salah heads the first goalscorer market which is nearly always the case when Liverpool are playing. The Egyptian is regarded as marginally more likely than Diogo Jota to break the deadlock and it’s likely that Luis Diaz will form the third part of the attacking trident, although some might instead look at a PSG player instead.
Ousmane Dembele is now the main man from an attacking point-of-view after the departure of Kylian Mbappe, with the former having scored twenty-five goals in all competitions this term. The 27-year-old has now reached his peak and he recently scored in ten successive matches, managing to find the net eighteen times during that phase.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia might only have seven goals for the season but he’s a player who can certainly probe away at the Liverpool defence, with Bradley Barcola lasting little more than an hour in the first leg although the 22-year-old came close to scoring in that match and perhaps he can bring the scoreline on aggregate level after recently scoring goals against Brest and Lille.