Charlton v Chelsea Betting Tips
Chelsea are not going to win the Premier League title this season. They're unlikely to win the Champions League either. However, they can still win both domestic cup competitions including the FA Cup. The Blues have been handed a fairly favourable third round tie with a short trip to The Valley. It will mark the first game where Liam Rosenior is in charge after replacing Enzo Maresca this week.
Rosenior arrives after being in charge at Strasbourg and impressing at the Ligue 1 club, having previously enjoyed spells with Derby and Hull. He returns to England with his stock very high and Chelsea are firm favourites to get the job done in South London. Odds of 1.42 suggest a 70% chance of landing a victory against a Championship side who will be up for the fight.
Recent form has not been convincing. Since a 3-1 win at Cardiff in the EFL Cup, there have been four straight games without a victory. There was a 2-2 draw at Newcastle before a home reverse against Aston Villa. Then came a 2-2 draw against Bournemouth before a 1-1 draw at Manchester City. That last result might serve as a big confidence booster.
Charlton Athletic are loitering fairly near the foot of the Championship table, with the Addicks sitting nineteenth in the standings. Nathan Jones guided his team from League One last term, with the South London outfit having won five and drawn three of their eleven home clashes. They can certainly serve it up to their Premier League opponents.
Recent form has not been great. There has been just one win in the past eleven clashes, with that being a 1-0 success against Oxford before Christmas. Since then, there have been defeats at Norwich and Portsmouth, with a solid draw coming against Coventry before another 1-1 scoreline away at Blackburn.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals seems to be a likely outcome based on the current odds. The 1.57 implies a 64% chance of there being three or more scored during an FA Cup clash which needs to be settled on the night. It actually looks a decent price considering that Chelsea have been involved in some high-scoring clashes recently and are clearly capable of covering the line themselves.
There's also the fact that twenty-nine goals have been scored across ten Chelsea away matches. They have racked up eighteen on the road and conceded eleven, with Liam Rosenior likely to adopt an attack-minded approach at The Valley and hopefully make a statement with his first game in charge.
Charlton will surely look to get among the goals themselves. A defensive approach may not serve them particularly well against quality opposition, with the Addicks having generally found the net when they've played at home.
BTTS
As with many FA Cup clashes between top-flight and Championship teams, the conversation often comes down to whether the latter can find the net considering that a Premier League side is very likely to score in this game. My hunch is that Chelsea will want to achieve a bloodless and professional victory and that means a BTTS No outcome could be the value.
Chelsea are full of goals right now and they will surely create scoring chances at The Valley. They will also want to put on a defensive front, with Enzo Fernandez and Reece James likely to operate in front of a robust back four. There's also the fact that Charlton only average one goal per Championship game and might struggle to break down their opponents.
We have to work on the basis that the visitors will have the lion's share of possession, with a Chelsea win and BTTS No bet possibly paying the best dividends. On the flip side, the Championship side have scored in their previous nine clashes at The Valley. However, the vast majority of those games have seen Nathan Jones' side score just one goal.
First Goalscorer
Enzo Fernandez has scored in both of his previous two matches. The Argentine was able to find the net as part of a crazy 2-2 draw against Bournemouth, with all the goals coming in the opening part of the match. The other scorer in that game was Cole Palmer who converted from the spot although the former then scored a last-gasp equaliser at Manchester City and will be hungry for more.
Perhaps this is the time for Liam Delap to step forward and start finding the net. The former Ipswich man may prosper under the tutelage of Rosenior, with the striker having yet to catch fire since a big money move from Ipswich. Estevao may also be fielded in this game and the young Brazilian has a great chance of making his mark, with lots of open spaces likely to appear at The Valley.
If Charlton do find the net, then Charlie Kelman is likely to be the player to score a goal. The former Leyton Orient man notched in successive games against Swansea and Oxford, with a brace then coming at Ewood Park. He has the confidence to make his mark against top-flight opposition, with Miles Leaburn being another young player who can unleash some pace and power against top-flight opponents.