Chelsea v Leeds Betting Markets
At the time of writing, Leeds United are nine points clear of the drop zone in the Premier League. They can therefore relax a little going into Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea, with Daniel Farke having done an excellent job at Elland Road.
The Whites are now seven games unbeaten in all competitions and we think they could be the value bet to win this match. Since losing 1-0 at home to Sunderland, there have been three wins and four draws. This includes a deserved 2-1 success at Old Trafford where Leeds produced an accomplished performance to beat an in-form Manchester United side.
We definitely think that Leeds are worth backing in some way. Even if you're not super confident that they'll win in ninety minutes, you can consider their odds to reach the final. You might also want to look at the Asian Handicap market where you could support the outsiders in some way.
While we're broadly positive about Leeds, we are definitely on a downer when it comes to Chelsea. Calum McFarlane has been tasked with trying to improve fortunes since the dismissal of Liam Rosenior, with the Blues having lost five consecutive matches in the Premier League including Tuesday's 3-0 defeat at Brighton.
The 7-0 FA Cup win over Port Vale sticks out in a sea of defeats, with that being preceded by an extra-time success at Wrexham. Perhaps the caretaker boss will get a tune out of some talented players in the squad, although the camp will clearly be unsettled as they effectively have their third manager of what's turning out to be a fraught season.
We think at the very least you can consider the draw which is trading at a backable price. Leeds came away from Bournemouth with a recent 2-2 scoreline and it could be the case that we see extra-time here.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies make it a toss-up when it comes to Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals. There's little to split the two selections in terms of odds. Leeds were involved in that 2-2 draw against Bournemouth and that was preceded by them enjoying a 3-0 success over Wolves and a 2-1 win at Manchester United. Therefore, recent evidence points towards Overs for a Leeds side who will feel confident of scoring goals.
Much depends on Chelsea's approach to the game. After a 3-0 defeat at Brighton, it might be that the London side look to return to defensive basics. A lot of their recent matches have seen Over 2.5 Goals happen, although the majority of occasions have seen the opposition cover the line such as PSG, Everton and Manchester City.
There's a lot at stake for both teams here. Chelsea's only chance of silverware rests on this game. Leeds have not found themselves in too many FA Cup semis. Therefore, there's a case for a cagey encounter being played out and Under 2.5 Goals is therefore appealing.
BTTS
Since losing 5-2 away to Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea have been involved in seven straight games where BTTS No has happened. In six of those games, the Blues have failed to score. In the other clash, it turned out to be a 7-0 FA Cup win over League Two-bound side Port Vale.
Therefore, it's hard to be confident that the London side will score in this clash. Joao Pedro was absent from the team in the last two matches, with Liam Delap not proving to be effective up top and Cole Palmer's fitness continues to be a concern. Perhaps Chelsea's problems are deeper than just the manager.
Leeds are looking sharp in front of goal. Since consecutive goalless draws against Crystal Palace and Brentford, they have scored nine times across four games. There was a 2-2 draw at the London Stadium which saw the FA Cup tie going to penalties, with that being followed by a 2-1 success at Old Trafford.
We think a Leeds win could well be on the cards and would it comes as a surprise if it was combined with BTTS No? This could be a case of the bookies having the wrong favourite and we have to support the Yorkshire side to get the job done.
First Goalscorer
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has always been a class striker and Leeds United are enjoying him having a run of games in the team this season. The former Everton man has twelve for the season, with goals recently coming against West Ham and Wolves. We know he's on penalties for the Whites and perhaps he will put Chelsea to the sword here.
Noah Okafor was hardly a goal machine until the start of February. Since then, the Swiss has pressed for his inclusion in the World Cup squad by finding the net regularly for Leeds. He bagged a brace at Old Trafford as part of that 2-1 win and actually has five goals across eight games for the Yorkshire club.
As for Chelsea, we're not sure if Joao Pedro or Cole Palmer will be available here. The team are low on confidence although perhaps Enzo Fernandez will benefit from being in a more advanced position. The Argentine will feel he has a point to prove after recently being dropped from the first team after being linked to Real Madrid.