Manchester City v Chelsea Betting Markets
Manchester City look like a value bet to win the 2026 FA Cup final in ninety minutes. Pep Guardiola's side are available at odds of 1.72 to win at Wembley, giving them an implied probability of 58% that they beat Chelsea. When you consider that the Cityzens currently have 71 Premier League points compared to their opponents' 48, then there could be a difference in quality.
City might be chasing down the Premier League title but they'll still be 100% going for this trophy and it would mean they land the cup double even if Arsenal pip them to the post. Speaking of the Gunners, Pep's men were able to overcome their north London foes by a 2-0 scoreline to get over the line in the Carabao Cup final a few weeks ago.
City have won 21 of their 34 games in the top-flight this term and it was a recent trip to Stamford Bridge where they were able to cruise to a 3-0 success. The north-west side did have a wobble when drawing 3-3 at Everton, although that had been preceded by six straight victories. This sort of form is in stark contrast to the opposition.
Chelsea will be led into battle by Calum McFarlane who continues as the interim coach for the rest of the season. He oversaw a Wembley win against Leeds United although that victory and a demolition of Port Vale are in contrast to eight defeats which have occurred in the other ten games they have lately played.
There were home defeats against the two Manchester clubs before succumbing to an alarming 3-0 loss at Brighton. More recently, they hosted a Nottingham Forest team who were far from full strength although the Midlands side were still able to escape with a 3-1 victory and it's hard to believe that Chelsea can land a win.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies make Over 2.5 Goals the slight favourite in this FA Cup final, with Manchester City covering the line themselves at Stamford Bridge in a recent Premier League showdown. There were also three goals scored at Wembley in a semi-final against Southampton when winning 2-1. However, the Carabao Cup final involved two goals and a tighter affair where City claimed a 2-0 success.
While we know that City are a power scoring side, we expect Chelsea to defend for their lives here. The Blues might be in rotten form although they engineered a 1-0 victory over Leeds in their semi and perhaps they can frustrate the opposition. The big question is whether they can stop the flow of goals that have been conceded on the basis that Nottingham Forest and Brighton have both put three goals past them.
BTTS
Despite spending an enormous amount of money on new players over the past few seasons, Chelsea are having real issues finding the net. Therefore, a BTTS No bet could be the way forward. They were only able to score late in the day against Nottingham Forest thanks to a Joao Pedro consolation effort, while it was an early Enzo Fernandez strike that ensured they reached the FA Cup final.
In the previous six meaningful games, Chelsea drew a blank and it's easy to see them not scoring a goal at Wembley. Especially as their caretaker coach will want to deploy a defensive set-up against attacking opposition that effectively demolished them at Stamford Bridge.
We think that a Manchester City win combined with BTTS No could be the way forward. We know that the City defence can run a tight ship despite an aberration at Everton where Pep Guardiola's men were in control of the game at 1-0 before finding themselves 3-1 down.
Perhaps Chelsea might go for broke if they fall behind and let's not forget that the London side claimed a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium earlier this term.
First Goalscorer
We're expecting City to be at full-strength and that could lead to Erling Haaland being a menace for a Chelsea defence which has been looking porous. The London team shipped three goals against Nottingham Forest and Brighton recently, meaning that the Norwegian could profit from a weakness in that position. The striker is on penalties and can often be the man for the big occasion.
Antoine Semenyo also has a healthy tally of goals, although Nico O'Reilly was in the right place at the right time to help Manchester City win the Carabao Cup. The young English talent is likely to play in an advanced position, with centre-half Marc Guehi also on the scoresheet at Stamford Bridge and he's slotted into the Cityzens first-team seamlessly.
Joao Pedro could be the most likely scorer for the outsiders and Chelsea's Brazilian forward is one of the few squad members who can hold their heads high. Enzo Fernandez has been in trouble with his association to Real Madrid, although the Argentine can often pop up in the right place and he was able to score the winning goal against Leeds.