Manchester City v Southampton Betting Markets
Manchester City will talk about being professional in their FA Cup semi against Southampton although there's little doubt that they will be delighted with facing Championship opposition. Pep Guardiola's side are trading at around odds of 1.20 to claim a normal time win with the FA Cup betting sites. This gives them an implied probability of around 85% that they claim the spoils.
City are enjoying a winning streak right now. Since being eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid, the north-west side have claimed five consecutive successes in all competitions. Their Carabao Cup final win over Arsenal has been followed by a 4-0 victory over Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter final stage. Then came three straight top-flight wins against Chelsea, Arsenal and Burnley.
The City defence has been watertight and just one goal has been conceded in the previous five games. We could therefore consider a bet on Manchester City to win along with BTTS No. This is available at a bigger price than backing City on the Full-Time Result market, with another nice alternative being Guardiola's side to lead at half-time and full-time.
We don't mean to do Southampton a disservice and we have to respect the fact that they beat Arsenal in the previous round. The Saints were full value for their 2-1 win at St Mary's and their form in recent months means they could be dining at the top table of English football come August.
However, it would take a phenomenal performance to even draw in normal time against such illustrious opponents. You do have to go back to 17 January to find the last time that the Saints lost a football match. Since then, there have been mostly wins and the occasional draw. Before Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Bristol City, Southampton had won eight straight games in all competitions.
Goals Under/Over
We might be in for a few goals when Manchester City take on Southampton. The bookies make Over 2.5 Goals a fairly likely occurrence. The odds of 1.40 imply that there's a 70% chance of three or more being scored over ninety minutes. It could be an entertaining display although City will look upon this game as one where a professional job needs to be carried out.
Indeed, it's perfectly possible that the aim will be to get to a 2-0 scoreline and then manage the game accordingly. They were able to keep Burnley at arm's length on Wednesday night after taking the lead, so make sure you tread carefully with a goals bet.
The alternative narrative is that City completely steamroller a side whose chief focus is getting promotion to the Premier League this term. We therefore think that there's a case for going Over 3.5 Goals or even Over 4.5 Goals if the floodgates potentially open.
BTTS
The FA Cup bookies think that BTTS No is slightly more likely to happen than BTTS Yes. A case can be made for the latter in the sense that this is a one-off cup tie. We can also back this up by stating that Southampton have scored in every game since a 4-0 defeat at Middlesbrough on 4 January.
Tonda Eckert has his team scoring on a frequent basis and they have been involved in a high volume of BTTS Yes matches in recent weeks. The obvious thing is that Manchester City are likely to score. Even when Southampton beat Arsenal, it was a 2-1 success and it's improbable that the Premier League leaders will fail to find the net.
Therefore, it simply comes down to whether Southampton can score or alternatively be snuffed out by world-class defenders. There's a chance that Guardiola will rest players for the Wembley showdown and that might lead to the Saints having more chances to find the net. We therefore recommend waiting for team news to assess the situation a little better.
First Goalscorer
Erling Haaland is likely to continue leading the line and the hope is that the Norwegian can have a big impact. He scored the game's only goal at Turf Moor on Wednesday night to keep his team on track for the Premier League title. However, there's a chance that he might be rested and the striker isn't the only source of goals for the team.
Rayan Cherki scored a superlative goal against Arsenal recently and the Frenchman could enjoy roaming around the Wembley turf. He has made himself a strong case to be PFA Player of the Year and could shine. It's been a few games since Antoine Semenyo was last on the scoresheet and the former Bournemouth man is a lively contender here.
However, Nico O'Reilly was the man at the double when City beat Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final. The young Englishman is likely to rove in attacking positions and his aerial threat means he should be considered when it comes to a goalscorer bet.
Cyle Larin has scored seven goals for Southampton since arriving on loan from Real Mallorca at the turn of the year. The Canadian has scored three goals across five matches and can offer a threat to the City rearguard. Cameron Archer recently scored in consecutive matches against Blackburn and Swansea, with the former Aston Villa man capable of also causing problems.