Arsenal v Chelsea Match Result
Despite having home advantage and being six points better off than their opponents, Arsenal are only given a 55% chance of beating Chelsea on Sunday. There are reasons for this, namely that the Gunners’ domestic form hasn’t been particularly strong recently and there were two points dropped at Old Trafford last weekend.
It’s all very well putting seven goals past PSV in the Champions League, although Mikel Arteta’s side have been stuttering in the Premier League over the past few weeks. The goalless draw at the City Ground was respectable enough, although a 1-0 home defeat against West Ham laid bare a lack of cutting edge in the top flight.
Arsenal have dropped points in five of their matches at the Emirates this term, so they don’t have a strong win rate in front of their own fans. The atmosphere will be buzzing for the arrival of Chelsea, although there seems to be the occasional goalfest such as the Manchester City and PSV game along with a number of games where the north London side have failed to trouble the net.
Chelsea certainly have the potential to land a positive result in their quest to land a place in the top five and qualify for next season’s Champions League. The Blues have notched six wins on the road this term along with three draws, although they were recently beaten in two consecutive away games at Brighton before being defeated at Aston Villa.
Since then, there have been three consecutive wins although these victories came against Southampton, Copenhagen and Leicester, with this representing a step up in class for a side who have been a lesser attacking power without the injured Nicolas Jackson and they come into this match after a Europa Conference League encounter against Copenhagen on Thursday.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies can’t decide whether this game will go over or under the 2.5 goals line. When the teams met on Sunday 10 November, there was nothing to separate them as the game ended in a 1-1 draw. Gabriel Martinelli scored on the hour mark before Pedro Neto equalised, with a similar scoreline potentially happening here.
The past three Arsenal Premier League matches have seen under 2.5 goals happen, with Chelsea potentially setting up to nullify opponents who appear to have lost their scoring touch in the Premier League. The game will come too soon for Bukayo Saka, with Kai Havertz also absent to face his former club.
There’s also the fact that Cole Palmer has stopped finding the net, with Nicolas Jackson’s injury strengthening the argument that the net won’t bulge any more than two times. The unders certainly looks the value here.
BTTS
The Premier League betting sites think it’s marginally more likely that we’ll see both teams to score compared to at least one side failing to find the net. The 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture would be enough for BTTS Yes backers to land a return, with Arsenal’s matches against PSV and Manchester United also seeing this happen although this came after a run of four matches where it was BTTS No.
It might not help if Arteta persists with Mikel Merino in the false nine position, with Ethan Nwaneri hooked on the hour mark at Old Trafford and perhaps Gabriel Martinelli holds the secret to finding the net. However, the Gunners defence continues to be strong and will be confident of keeping Chelsea at arm’s length.
The Blues are not blessed with goals right now. Four against Southampton was neither here nor there, with the west London side relying on Marc Cucurella to find the net on the hour mark in order to help Chelsea to three points against Leicester. They only had one shot on target in an FA Cup defeat at Brighton and they drew blanks a week later at the AMEX Stadium when losing 3-0 to the Seagulls.
First Goalscorer
Out of all the Arsenal players, we’d be happy to take a punt on Gabriel Martinelli who offers a decent cutting edge from an attacking point-of-view. The Brazilian was surprisingly left on the bench at Old Trafford, although he can certainly compensate for the absence of Bukayo Saka and even be put into a more attacking position.
It could be that set pieces help the home side get over the line and Gabriel continues to be a threat from corners and free-kicks. He and William Saliba should be in the mix from an aerial point-of-view, with Leandro Trossard is another attacking player who has the ability to break the deadlock.
Bettors are losing faith with Cole Palmer who has been stuck on fourteen goals for the season since a 2-2 draw with Bournemouth on 14 January, with the England man missing a penalty against Leicester. It’s now nine games and counting since he scored, with Pedro Neto a viable alternative, especially as the Portuguese was able to find the net in the reverse fixture.