Aston Villa v Manchester City Match Result
Manchester City look hard to trust at odds of 1.85. They haven’t looked particularly convincing on the road since winning 4-0 at Molineux in their opening clash. They were beaten at Brighton 2-1 the next time they played away from home, with a 1-1 draw at the Emirates being followed by a slender 1-0 victory at Brentford.
Goals have dried up away from the Etihad and there’s an over-reliance on Erling Haaland to find the net. At the time of writing, the Norwegian has been the only City name on the scoresheet in the previous three encounters. Although he’s a phenomenal forward, it’s clear that nullifying him holds the key to success.
Aston Villa have certainly been enjoying plenty of victories recently. The alarm bells were ringing after the season started with no wins in any of the six games played. However, that has been followed by five straight victories in all competitions. That has included top-flight successes against Fulham, Burnley and Tottenham.
Unai Emery’s side have previously fared well at home to City. They have won this fixture over the past two seasons, with a 2-1 victory being enjoyed last December when Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers put the Villans two goals to the good before Phil Foden scored a late consolation effort.
In the previous season, a Leon Bailey goal was the difference between the two sides. The campaign before this saw a 1-1 draw take place. Therefore, it’s hard to be too confident about a City win considering they will have played away to Villarreal in a Champions League game the previous Tuesday.
We think the draw could be the best value in this game. Villa are now proving hard to beat and we know that Villa Park can generate plenty of noise. Since losing 3-0 at home to Crystal Palace, it has been eight games since the home side tasted any kind of defeat.
Goals Under/Over
There have been ten goals scored in four Manchester City away games this season. However, four were notched in that opener at Molineux. So it’s only been six in three. The last time the Cityzens were on the road, it was a tight affair at Brentford. After an early goal for Erling Haaland, the visitors were happy to keep things tight and come away with a 1-0 triumph.
The same thing nearly happened in the previous away encounter. Once again, a Haaland goal gave City an early lead. And it nearly proved enough before a Gabriel Martinelli finish was able to restore parity. Therefore, it might be worth treading carefully in a game where both sides will be looking to put up a strong defensive rearguard.
The Unders are probably the better value. We know that Villa would be happy to take a point. They also kept Spurs relatively quiet in the previous clash and they’ve had a goalless draw against Newcastle and a 1-0 win over Bologna among the results at Villa Park.
BTTS
Will both teams score at Villa Park? The bookmakers think it’s a reasonable probability. There’s an over 60% chance of both sides finding the net according to the latest odds. Manchester City are averaging more than two goals per game right now, although only three have been notched in the past three away games.
City don’t tend to draw blanks. Since failing to score at home to Tottenham back in August, there has been at least one goal on the board. Haaland is generally a solid bet for a goal return, although Pep Guardiola admitted that more is needed from the other attacking players in order to be successful.
Villa began the campaign with a goalless draw against Newcastle. They also failed to score at home to Crystal Palace when losing 3-0. However, there are lots being scored right now and it’s been seven games in all competitions where the Midlands side have found the net. In the previous four games, they have scored at least two.
The goals are coming from multiple sources, with Morgan Rogers and Emi Buendia the latest two names on the scoresheet. Donyell Malen, John McGinn and Ollie Watkins are other players capable of breaching the City defence.
First Goalscorer
How do you stop Erling Haaland? That’s the big question considering that the Norwegian has started the season like a train. He has eleven goals in his first eight Premier League encounters and it’s only Tottenham who have stopped him scoring in all competitions. Twenty-three is a brilliant goal tally for any forward for the entire season, although that amount have already been notched by the City striker.
He's still value to score the opening goal considering he’s made a habit of doing this this term. It’s hard to make a case for any other City player based on the overreliance on the star forward, although Phil Foden is getting plenty of game time and perhaps the England man is a credible alternative.
We might expect to see Ollie Watkins return to the starting lineup here after an injury on international duty. However, Morgan Rogers produced a sweet strike at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the midfielder is starting to find his stride. Emi Buendia is also proving that he has an eye for goal and we’ve seen John McGinn get into good attacking positions.