Aston Villa v Manchester City Match Result
Manchester City are warm favourites to land a much-needed three points from this fixture. However, when you look at the stats, it’s hard to feel as though there’s too much value when it comes to siding with the champions. They’ve only won three of their eight away clashes this term and they have failed to win on the road since a somewhat fortunate victory at Wolves on 20 October.
You can attribute City’s poor form to a number of factors and the main one appears to be Rodri being injured on a long-term basis. However, there’s an over-reliance on Erling Haaland for goals, Kevin de Bruyne has been injury-prone and the form of Phil Foden is clearly a big concern considering he’s yet to net in the Premier League this term.
Aston Villa won this fixture last season and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if they were able to repeat this act. After all, they don’t have any more Champions League obligations this side of Christmas and can now focus on getting their domestic form in order, with a packed house at Villa Park looking to cheer them to a festive win.
Villa’s participation in the Champions League has clearly had an impact on Premier League form, although they had won three games on the bounce in all competitions before a 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest last weekend. Jhon Duran was on the scoresheet at the City Ground and it might be the same player that can cause problems for the opposition this weekend.
Villa have won four of their eight home matches in the Premier League, drawing three and losing just one. That was against Arsenal back in August and there’s every reason to look at getting with the Birmingham side in some shape or form. You can potentially look at backing them on the Double Result with the draw on your side or alternatively the Asian Handicap also provides a viable option.
Goals Under/Over
The Premier League football betting sites expect the two teams to collectively go over the 2.5 goals line, with this trading at odds-on. It’s hardly a surprise considering that Unai Emery’s side have managed to score thirteen times in their eight home games, while Manchester City have notched twelve times in their eight away clashes.
However, a deeper dive into City’s recent form illustrates that they’ve had a few issues finding the net. They only managed one in the recent derby defeat against Manchester United and there was previously a 2-0 Champions League reverse away to Juventus, with the team mustering three shots on target despite dominating possession.
City also drew a blank when losing 2-0 at Anfield and this fixture ended 1-0 in favour of Aston Villa last season, although four of the Villan’s five previous clashes have seen the games go over the 2.5 goals line and that explains why it is trading as favourite.
BTTS
The odds for BTTS Yes is actually trading shorter than Over 2.5 Goals, with the price suggesting that there’s a 66% chance of both teams finding the net. Aston Villa rarely draw a blank when they’re playing at home in the Premier League. This has happened in just two of their eight matches, losing 2-0 against Arsenal and being held to a goalless draw by Manchester United.
However, the recent Villans’ matches have been an even split of BTTS Yes and BTTS No. The past two matches involved a 3-2 win away to a leaky Leipzig before a 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest but this was preceded by a more slender 1-0 victory over Southampton. Previously to this, a 3-1 win over Brentford saw them register ten shots on target compared to their opponents’ one.
As for Manchester City, you would assume that they can hit the net in normal circumstances, although there have been recent blanks drawn against Tottenham, Liverpool and Juventus, while they only managed to score once against Manchester United. They are certainly a good deal more subdued than previous campaigns, with only three shots on target managed in the derby.
First Goalscorer
Erling Haaland has scored eighteen goals in all competitions this season, so it would be wrong to suggest he’s having a bad season. However, nine of this thirteen top-flight efforts came in the first four games of the campaign and the rate has dramatically slowed down since then, with better value alternatives available when it comes to the First Goalscorer market.
Kevin De Bruyne certainly has the capability to find the net at a bigger price, although Phil Foden backers will be losing their patience with a player who has lost form this time around, with Josko Gvardiol the defender that offers a scoring threat both with his head and his feet in terms of scoring goals.
Unai Emery has a selection dilemma in terms of whether to opt for Ollie Watkins or Jhon Duran in attack. While there might be a temptation to field both players in some matches, facing Manchester City requires a more strategic approach. Duran is possibly the one who is going to keep his place and lead the line after scoring against Forest.