Chelsea v Manchester City Betting Markets
Manchester City are back in the groove after winning the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal before thrashing Liverpool in an FA Cup quarter final tie. They now travel to Stamford Bridge bidding to keep alive their Premier League title hopes. At the time of writing, Pep Guardiola's side sit nine points behind the Gunners although the gap could be twelve before kick-off.
City's win rate on the road hasn't been great this term. The visitors have won just seven of their fifteen games away from home, with this being in stark contrast to their form at the Etihad Stadium. This is their first top-flight meeting in nearly a month, with the previous clash being a 1-1 draw at the London Stadium and this came after a 2-2 scoreline at home to Nottingham Forest.
However, those recent cup successes demonstrate that City could finish the campaign strongly and they'll be facing an out-of-form Chelsea side. Never mind the 7-0 win against Port Vale in the FA Cup. Liam Rosenior's team previously lost four games on the bounce, including two defeats by Paris Saint-Germain which sent them out of the Champions League 8-2 on aggregate.
There was also a 1-0 home reverse against Newcastle and a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Everton. All is not well at Chelsea and Rosenior will be under real pressure if his team lose this clash. It's hard to see them obliging considering that Manchester City come into this match off the back of a 4-0 FA Cup success against Liverpool.
It's now clear that the top five in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League, with Chelsea sitting just outside these spots. A draw would represent a solid outcome ahead of their remaining matches, although we're leaning towards the odds-against quotes for Manchester City.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at heavy odds-on for this Sunday spectacle. Odds of 1.53 imply that there's a 65% probability that three or more will be scored at the Bridge. However, the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium in early January ended with a 1-1 scoreline. On that occasion, a Tijjani Reijnders opener before half-time was cancelled out by a late Enzo Fernandez equaliser.
Both teams only had a modest three shots on target apiece in that encounter. Previous encounters also suggest that two goals or under could feasibly happen. Although City beat Chelsea 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium last season, there were previously three consecutive meetings which were lower-scoring. The outcome in this fixture last term ended with a 2-0 success for City.
We should also note that City have claimed bloodless wins against Arsenal and Liverpool, with their strong defensive capabilities potentially coming to the fore against opponents who are short of goals in the top-flight right now.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds are trading shorter than Over 2.5 Goals, with the bookmakers anticipating that both sides will find the net. But is there really a 66% chance that each team will score. Manchester City are bang in form in front of goal, with Nico O'Reilly at the double to help his team win the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal.
Then came a 4-0 success versus Liverpool where Erling Haaland was able to score a hat-trick in the space of eighteen minutes. Antoine Semenyo also got on to the scoresheet in a match where City had seven shots on target. The Reds also had five SOT and that included a Mohamed Salah penalty which was saved by James Trafford.
Put simply, Manchester City rarely draw a blank. Aside from a 3-0 defeat at Real Madrid, they have found the net in their last sixteen encounters. The fact that they'll be going all out for the victory here implies that they are very likely to score.
When you look at Chelsea's attacking line-up, you might think the same thing applies. However, we've seen the Blues draw a blank several times recently. It's happened in three consecutive games against Newcastle, PSG and Chelsea were there were seven unanswered goals.
First Goalscorer
Erling Haaland came back with a bang when scoring a hat-trick against Liverpool last weekend. That brought the Norwegian's total to forty-six goals in all competitions. However, the striker had only found the net in one of his previous seven encounters. Therefore, he might not be a value first scorer bet compared to some of his team-mates.
Antoine Semenyo ended a seven-game goalless run by finding the net in the FA Cup, with the former Bournemouth man likely to get into good scoring positions. Rayan Cherki had a purple patch in front of goal at the start of 2026 by notching four goals across six games although the Frenchman is likely to be back on the scoresheet soon.
Nico O'Reilly has notched eight goals for City this term and this includes the brace that helped his team win the Carabao Cup final against Arsenal. As for Chelsea, Joao Pedro has a respectable fourteen goals for the campaign in the Premier League. He was back on the scoresheet against Port Vale in that 7-0 FA Cup success.
Cole Palmer will be part of the England squad that goes to the 2026 World Cup, although he's without a goal in the past seven matches. Enzo Fernandez could be better value and the Argentine was able to score in the reverse fixture.