Manchester City v Chelsea Betting Tips
Manchester City have been the punters' friend at home this season. Since slipping up against Tottenham in August, the Cityzens have landed eight successive victories in front of their own fans. Pep Guardiola's side have toppled Manchester United, Burnley, Everton, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Leeds, Sunderland and West Ham at the Etihad Stadium.
Along the way, they have scored twenty-five goals and conceded just six at home, with odds of 1.75 looking like a backable price considering the above information. The price implies that City have a 60% chance of success although it's clear that some will think there's a stronger probability of landing three points. Especially when you have the master marksman in the form of Erling Haaland.
City are in the title hunt and they have players who are all in excellent form. That includes goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma in front of Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, while Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden are both tearing it up. The fact that Haaland has scored nineteen goals is a massive positive for this juggernaut of a team.
As for Chelsea, they have looked like world-beaters at time this season. However, the bottom line is that they've only won eight of their eighteen top-flight matches in the Premier League. At the time of writing, EPL successes have been thin on the ground and their last away victory came at Turf Moor on 22 November.
We know that Chelsea are capable of a positive result but they have also demonstrated a weak underbelly at various stages this term. They had to work hard to come from two goals down at Newcastle and let slip a one-goal lead to be beaten by Aston Villa. The form of Cole Palmer hasn't been as bright as expected and they're firmly the betting outsiders to land a victory here.
Goals Under/Over
The Over 2.5 Goals price is trading as the firm favourite here. The odds of 1.53 suggest a roughly 65% chance of three or more goals being scored. There have been thirty-one goals scored across nine City home matches, with this being an average of well more than three. We know that Pep Guardiola's side are capable of covering the goal line all by themselves and this has happened against Leeds and Liverpool.
We also know that City haven't always been watertight defensively, with Chelsea arriving at the Etihad Stadium having played nine away games and there has been an average of three in each match. They had a recent 2-2 draw at Newcastle which laid bare their defensive shortcomings and attacking prowess, with Enzo Maresca's side surely trying to get on the front foot here.
We think Over 3.5 Goals could certainly happen, with a 3-1 City victory potentially on the cards. Chelsea will surely need to avoid defending too deep and being the latest team defeated at the Etihad Stadium.
BTTS
Manchester City aren't in the habit of conceding a huge number of goals at the Etihad Stadium. Just six have been shipped in front of their own fans and four of them combined came against Tottenham and Leeds. Therefore, we've seen them achieve lots of bloodless wins and that includes victories over Liverpool, Manchester United, Sunderland and West Ham.
Taking a cursory glance at some of the recent City fixtures, it's been hard to find the net against Pep Guardiola's side. That crazy 5-4 win at Fulham has been followed by six games where Real Madrid and Nottingham Forest are the only sides to have scored against City and they only managed one apiece.
Chelsea average nearly two goals per away game and perhaps they are capable of scoring a goal, even if it can be filed under the consolation variety. Enzo Maresca's side are arguably more dangerous on the road considering that seventeen have been plundered in comparison to the thirteen registered at Stamford Bridge.
If you are considering a BTTS wager, then a City win and BTTS Yes outcome could be worthy of consideration. It's a high stakes game and we may see both teams duking it out for the points.
First Goalscorer
There's always a good starting point in the form of Erling Haaland. There are going to be lots of Manchester City v Chelsea Bet Builders where the Norwegian will be down as an anytime scorer. After all, the former Dortmund striker averages more than one goal per Premier League encounter this term and is now heading towards the twenty-goal mark.
His scoring rate has slowed down a touch in recent weeks. There was a three-match spell where Haaland drew a blank and he also failed to notch against Sunderland and Nottingham Forest. However, in between there were five goals across matches against Real Madrid, Crystal Palace and West Ham.
If City's goals are to come from another source, then consider Rayan Cherki. The Frenchman has notched in recent encounters against Brentford and Nottingham Forest, while it's also worth considering him on assist markets. Similarly, Phil Foden has shown some deadliness in front of goal and has pilfered six goals across his last eight matches.
As for Chelsea, perhaps they will offer a strong threat from set pieces, with Trevor Chalobah certainly capable of getting his head on the ball. Cole Palmer returns to his former club feeling motivated and also could be worth considering.