Man City v Liverpool Match Result
It’s hard to remember the last time that Manchester City were priced at 2.70 to win a Premier League home encounter. However, the bookies have installed them at these odds to overcome Liverpool on Sunday, indicating that the football betting sites only provide a 37% probability that they claim a victory in this match. Is this a value bet?
On the one hand, they will come into this match off the back of a testing Champions League encounter at the Santiago Bernabeu after previously losing 3-2 at home to Real Madrid in Europe. On the other, they were able to register a 4-0 victory over Newcastle last Saturday which saw Omar Marmoush bag a hat-trick to announce himself in England.
There will be punters wanting to back City to claim a victory against the champions-elect, with Pep Guardiola’s side having won eight and drawn two of their twelve encounters at the Etihad Stadium. They have scored a healthy twenty-eight goals in these clashes and will face a Liverpool side who have been denied victory in four away clashes this term.
Although Arne Slot’s side are unbeaten on the road this season, they were recently held to a 2-2 draw in the Merseyside derby and there have been three other occasions where they’ve been thwarted. A trip to Villa Park on Wednesday means that there could be some fatigue in the visitors’ ranks and they aren’t keeping too many clean sheets.
Perhaps the draw rates as the best option on the Full-Time Result market. It wouldn’t be a bad outcome for Liverpool who will continue to be in the box seat when it comes to landing a first Premier League title since 2020, while a draw for City will keep them in contention to qualify for the Champions League and they certainly have the attacking talent to get a positive outcome.
Goals Under/Over
According to the Premier League football betting sites, there’s a roughly 70% chance that we see the game go over the 2.5 goals line. That means that there will be least three goals scored and some bettors will want to move the line and go for over 3.5, with this outcome trading at roughly even money.
When the teams met on Sunday 1 December, Liverpool came away with a 2-0 victory at Anfield. Indeed, the previous three encounters featuring these teams have yielded exactly two goals on each occasion. Last season, the two north-west rivals played out a 1-1 draw although the bookies still think that a higher goal tally is likely.
There’s no getting away from the fact that the visitors have scored thirty-four goals in the space of thirteen away encounters and that’s an average which is pushing nearly three. There are so many strong attacking options within the ranks and the same applies to a City team who scored four against Newcastle last weekend.
BTTS
If Over 2.5 Goals is regarded as a likely outcome, then BTTS Yes is trading at an even shorter price. After all, both games featuring Manchester City and Liverpool last season ended in a 1-1 scoreline, with Trent Alexander-Arnold cancelling out Erling Haaland’s opener at the Etihad Stadium before an Alexis Mac Allister penalty was the equaliser after John Stones had broken the deadlock at Anfield.
More recently, Liverpool landed a 2-0 win this season thanks to goals from Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah, with the Reds very rarely drawing a blank in any game. The fact that Manchester City put two past Real Madrid in the Champions League but also conceded three in that Etihad encounter strengthens the case for BTTS Yes, especially after Guardiola’s side were able to score four against Newcastle.
Therefore, many accumulators will include BTTS Yes and it’s a fixture where both sides will be going for the jugular, something which could lead to an attacking game of football. We recommend considering the option to combine this selection with one of the picks on the Full-Time Result market, with this affording bigger odds in the process.
First Goalscorer
The 2024/25 season began with Erling Haaland as the strong favourite to finish Top Goalscorer in the Premier League for the third season running. The Norwegian’s numbers have been staggering since arriving from Borussia Dortmund, although the forward has not been able to shine as brightly this term despite notching nineteen goals. A lot of these came in the early part of the campaign and it’s been a slow churn in the past few months.
Perhaps Haaland will benefit from Omar Marmoush starting to find his stride in England and the Egyptian was able to pilfer a hat-trick against Newcastle to follow up his excellent scoring form for Eintracht Frankfurt in the first half of the season. Marmoush will go up against a well-known compatriot in this clash and Mohamed Salah is clearly going to be a popular first scorer pick.
It's been twenty-three goals for the Egyptian King so far and his presence in the Liverpool side essentially has made them into very strong title contenders. It’s possible that Cody Gakpo could make a return from injury here, although Luis Diaz can pose an excellent threat from the left wing and there might be a place for Diogo Jota in the starting 11.