Newcastle United v Arsenal Match Result
Newcastle and Arsenal have arguably the toughest defences in the Premier League. Aside from a 3-2 home defeat against Liverpool, the Magpies have managed to keep clean sheets in the top-flight. There was a 1-0 home win against Wolves, while Eddie Howe’s side have racked up successive goalless draws on the road against Aston Villa, Leeds and Bournemouth.
Therefore, the draw has to be a viable selection when it comes to the Full-Time Result market. We can see Newcastle putting up plenty of resistance against the firepower of Arsenal. It’s also clear that the Gunners are hard to beat. Aside from Erling Haaland’s counter-attack strike last weekend, the only other time that David Raya was beaten came from Dominik Szoboszlai’s thirty-yard effort at Anfield.
According to the betting odds, the visitors have a roughly 47% chance of winning at St James’ Park. They were able to claim a 2-0 victory away to Athletic Bilbao in the Champions League recently and can rely on a strong defence. They’ll also not be pitching up for a draw which definitely seemed to be their tactics at Anfield which nearly paid off.
Arsenal also won 1-0 at Old Trafford in their first match of the season although there was an element of fortune about that win. It’s hard to be too confident that we’ll see the London side land the spoils, with Newcastle sure to be rock solid at the back and a draw would suit them at this stage of the season.
Scoring goals has clearly been an issue for Eddie Howe’s side and Yoann Wissa continues to be unavailable although he might make a cameo appearance here. Nick Woltemade will hope to cause problems although his aerial threat might well be snuffed out against that super-tight Arsenal defence.
Goals Under/Over
We’re actually surprised that the Under 2.5 Goals odds are so big. The 1.80 available implies that there’s only a 55% chance of two or less goals being scored. However, we would have this price at around 1.66 or even 1.50. The bottom line is that Newcastle have had three 0-0 draws and a 1-0 victory. The only outlier was a crazy 3-2 home defeat against Liverpool where the Reds didn’t really have any chances other than the goals that they scored.
We think that the fact that Arsenal are so strong defensively strengthens the argument that there won’t be many goals. The Gunners have conceded two goals in five games. It takes something special to breach this defence and there isn’t too much indication that Newcastle will score in volume. They continue to be without firepower and have previously had Anthony Gordon as an advanced number nine.
BTTS
In a similar way to leaning towards Under 2.5 Goals, it seems more plausible that there will be a BTTS No outcome. There’s a definite possibility that there will be a goalless draw considering that Newcastle have already had three games end this way. OK, they were all road games but it goes to show that the Magpies are keeping things tight defensively but also struggling to score.
There’s also the fact that Arsenal are playing out low-scoring matches on the road. They enjoyed a 1-0 win at OId Trafford before suffering a reverse by the same scoreline at Anfield. They will be set up to shut out their opponents on Sunday and hope that the front three players are able to make an impact.
While the Gunners are certainly strong from set pieces, they will be against opponents who are also good from an aerial point-of-view. Gabriel, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are weapons of mass destruction, but they could be snuffed out by Dan Burn, Joelinton and Fabian Schar. We just think that BTTS No is an appealing wager and would be happy to take those odds.
First Goalscorer
As we’ve already mentioned, the goalless draw is a definite runner here. On that basis, No Goalscorer has to be worthy of consideration. The beauty of backing this selection is that you would get paid out if the only goal of the game is an own goal. However, there are other big-priced selections that we like the look of.
Viktor Gyokeres is the star striker looking to make things happen up top for Arsenal, with Eberechi Eze hunting for his first goal since making the switch from Crystal Palace. Noni Madueke is another livewire and there are plenty of Gunners players who can make a positive impact.
For Newcastle, Nick Woltemade looks likely to lead the line and cause problems. He was the match winner against Wolves on his home debut although there’s a chance that the first goal will come from a set piece. Declan Rice might be able to strike with a free-kick and also had a deadly weapon from corners.
The possibility of that Arsenal back four getting on the end of something is very real. It’s a question of taking your pick out of Gabriel, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori, although the preference is for the former.