Newcastle v Chelsea Match Result
Newcastle have an implied probability of 48% when it comes to winning this football match. This means they are closer to around 45% of winning although we think they have a better chance than this. Firstly, they have home advantage and St James’ Park is sure to be raucous for this match, with the home fans sensing that they can add Champions League qualification to their stunning Carabao Cup success.
The Magpies have won eleven of their seventeen home encounters this term. Eddie Howe’s side have also won seven of their last nine matches in all competitions. This includes that Wembley win over Liverpool along with home successes against Brentford, Manchester United, Crystal Palace and Ipswich.
The manner of some of those victories have been outstanding. After beating the Bees 2-1, they thrashed United by a 4-1 scoreline and they were even more emphatic when beating Crystal Palace by a 5-0 scoreline. They are definitely making home advantage count and will want to get the job done here.
Chelsea claimed a 3-1 win against Liverpool last weekend although this was partly down to the champions already having the title in the bag. The London side’s away form has been fairly modest, with just seven wins coming in the space of seventeen games on the road. However, there have been four straight victories in all competitions right now.
This started with a 2-1 west London derby win at Craven Cottage where Fulham were defeated. On that occasion, they have a lot more shots on target than their opponents, although they were beaten at the Emirates in the middle of March and there was also a three-game losing run in February when being chinned by Brighton (twice) and Aston Villa.
Goals Under/Over
A high-scoring game looks set to happen according to the latest odds. We’re talking about over 60% likely that there will be three goals netted and that has been trending when it comes to Newcastle home encounters. The Magpies themselves average over two goals per home encounter, with this happening in the previous six encounters at St James’ Park.
It’s clear that the north-east side adopt an attacking approach to the game when they are playing in front of their own fans. They have one of the top sharp shooters in the Premier League in Alexander Isak and we should see a decent goal tally, although perhaps Chelsea will adopt a defensive gameplan.
The visitors are likely to be happy with a point from this encounter, although they surely won’t sit back too much and invite pressure. With Nicolas Jackson back in the fold and Cole Palmer looking for more goals, we think that there will be three or more netted.
BTTS
We make it a 70% chance that BTTS Yes will happen in this game. It’s very hard to see Newcastle failing to find the net. The last time that the Magpies failed to score in front of their own fans was against West Ham on Monday 25 November. After that, they scored three times against Liverpool and they haven’t looked back since that moment.
Indeed, Eddie Howe’s side often score in big volumes and they will be creating plenty of chances. Anthony Gordon is edging his way back into contention, with Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy also capable of scoring and creating chances for Alexander Isak. They had five shots on target at Brighton in a recent 1-1 draw and this looks like a game where they’ll have some joy in front of goal.
We’re not entirely convinced that Chelsea will find the net though. Five of the last six games involving the Blues have been BTTS Yes although some of the opposition has been modest. Legia Warsaw and Djurgarden were Europa Conference League opponents, with those six games preceded by half a dozen matches where BTTS No happened.
First Goalscorer
Alexander Isak might be chasing home Mohamed Salah in the Premier League Golden Boot race, although the Swede is a hero at Newcastle United. He has now reached twenty-three goals and is operating as the favourite to break the deadlock against Chelsea. It’s also worth mentioning that Isak has scored in three of his previous four encounters.
Perhaps Anthony Gordon will be back in the starting line-up here. The former Everton player only has ten for the season but has recently been injured. He did go on a four-match scoring run during January and has an eye for goal. However, Jacob Murphy has had plenty of goal involvement and he’s on nine for the season.
Harvey Barnes is the other player worth considering for Bet Builders, with the former Leicester man scoring four goals in the space of three games recently. For Chelsea, Cole Palmer is on fifteen for the campaign and recently ended a drought by converting from the spot against Liverpool.
Nicolas Jackson will be leading the line and he can potentially add to his twelve goals for the season, with Enzo Fernandez breaking the deadlock against Liverpool and the Argentine is trading at a big price.