Match Result: Newcastle v Manchester City
Manchester City have a roughly 50% chance of landing a victory in this Premier League encounter. While Liverpool and Arsenal have both triumphed at St James’ Park this season, there were elements of fortune when it came to these victories. Newcastle have managed to win their other three home matches and they can rely on a hostile atmosphere when it comes to the Toon Army.
The fact that Eddie Howe’s side are yet to win on the road this term adds a bit more pressure to their home games. This is clearly a tough assignment against a Manchester City side who put Liverpool to the sword in their last top-flight encounter. It means that they’re averaging two points per top-flight game but it also means that eleven points have been dropped this term.
On the road, City have only landed two wins from their five road trips. There was a 2-1 defeat at Brighton at the end of August and that came before a 1-0 reverse at Villa Park at October. However, that defeat sticks out like a sore thumb and the other seven games in all competitions have ended in a victory for Guardiola’s side.
The goals have been coming thick and fast. Ten have been notched across three home games against Bournemouth, Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool. However, they have all been Etihad Stadium encounters and it’s been a tighter squeeze when it comes to getting away results.
We think that Newcastle can get a positive result here. We know that a midfield trio of Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimares and Joelinton is arguably the strongest in the Premier League. They will look to gain control of the middle of the pitch and create enough chances to at least get a draw from this clash, if not a rare home victory.
Goals Under/Over
There’s a roughly 60% chance of there being Over 2.5 Goals according to the latest odds. The past four Manchester City games in all competitions have seen three or more scored during the ninety minutes. Previously to this, there were four consecutive matches where two or less were notched during the game.
We know that City are capable of scoring goals, not least because they have the best striker in the world leading the line. Erling Haaland’s numbers are incredible, although there’s often a strategy in the big games to hold a deeper defensive line. This was certainly in evidence at the Emirates where Guardiola switched to a back five in order to try and stave off Arsenal.
At home, Newcastle don’t tend to concede too many goals. They have achieved recent shutouts against Tottenham and Athletic Bilbao. They also stopped Benfica from scoring in the Champions League recently, although Arsenal and Liverpool scored a combined five goals at this ground in the top-flight and it’s hard to see City failing to find the net.
BTTS
The odds for BTTS Yes are broadly similar to Over 2.5 Goals. It’s hardly a surprise considering that Newcastle usually find the net at home and it’s uncommon for City to draw a blank. Since a goalless draw at Bournemouth on 21 September, the Magpies have found the net in every game. It’s quite an achievement considering that Alexander Isak left for Liverpool and new signing Yoann Wissa has been completely unavailable.
On a similar note, Manchester City have scored in every game bar a home defeat against Tottenham in August and an away defeat at Villa Park more recently. Based on all evidence, BTTS Yes stands a strong chance of happening. Three of City’s last four wins have involved the opposition scoring and they certainly don’t run the same defensive ship that you might find with Arsenal.
So is the 1.61 worth backing when it comes to BTTS Yes. The answer is probably yes, although it might be worth considering adding this to a Bet Builder instead. After all, City ran riot by landing a 4-0 success when the teams met in mid-February, with the game at St James’ Park ending in a 1-1 scoreline. Three of the four encounters in the previous season ended with BTTS No so that’s something to bear in mind.
First Goalscorer
There’s only one place to start when it comes to betting on First Goalscorer. Erling Haaland has scored fourteen times across eleven top-flight clashes this term. He’s on course to score around fifty goals in the Premier League, with the player having managed thirty-two in all competitions this term. Only those EPL defeats against Tottenham and Aston Villa saw the Norwegian fail to find the net.
In both of Haaland’s recent encounters for Norway, the former Borussia Dortmund man was able to bag a brace against both Estonia and Italy. He seems practically unstoppable and is likely to be a popular anytime scorer option. However, Newcastle will want to try and keep close shackles on him.
The superlative City individual performance came from Jeremy Doku last time out, with the Belgian playing an outstanding game against Liverpool. He could be a decent alternative option, with Phil Foden also looking to make an impact from an attacking midfield position.
As for Newcastle, Nick Woltemade will look to score the ninth goal of his season and the German was on target for his country against Slovakia. The previous strike came against Tottenham in the EFL Cup and there was a four-game consecutive run of goals between the end of September and mid-October.