RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund Betting Tips
The teams played out a 1-1 draw when meeting back in October. Two early goals were exchanged in a fairly tight encounter were the sides both registered three shots on target. That draw came after four straight wins for Leipzig and it was followed by a further four consecutive victories. However, five of the past ten matches featuring the Red Bull side have ended in a defeat and only three have resulted in victory.
Ole Werner's team were recently held to a 2-2 draw by Wolfsburg where they had to twice come from behind despite having ten shots on target. They were thrashed 5-1 at home to Bayern Munich in the middle of January and the wheels also fell off against Mainz where they relinquished a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 despite dominating possession.
Odds of 2.25 about RB Leipzig implies a probability of around 45% when it comes to a maximum haul. However, they are facing a Borussia Dortmund who don't tend to lose in the German Bundesliga. It's hard to bet against a side who have avoided defeat in twenty-one of their twenty-two league matches and a draw is certainly within their grasp.
Recent form has been strong, with consecutive wins coming against Heidenheim, Wolfsburg and Mainz, the latter of which ended in a 4-0 victory. The slight fly in the ointment is that this game comes a few days after a Champions League clash against Atalanta. There is also the return leg in Italy just after this match and that could have a negative bearing on the game.
Dortmund did experience recent European defeats at the hands of Inter and Tottenham, the latter of whom obliging despite poor domestic form. However, that sole Bundesliga defeat was that October 2-1 reverse at the Allianz Arena.
Goals Under/Over
Despite the fact that the sides played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, the Bundesliga bookmakers anticipate a higher goal total this time around. The Over 2.5 Goals price is trading at 1.44 which means a probability of around 70% that this bet will pay out.
Across eleven home Leipzig matches, there have been forty goals scored. It might be therefore worth chancing Over 3.5 Goals at a bigger price. Odds of 2.10 could be worth backing although the goal rate when Dortmund take to the road is much lower. Thirty three goals have been registered across their eleven road trips.
It's worth noting that this fixture ended in a 2-0 victory for Leipzig last season, so it's not guaranteed that we see a high-scoring affair. However, the three previous meetings saw the games go over the 2.5 goals line.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds are trading at an even shorter price than Over 2.5 Goals. Not too many of Borussia Dortmund's previous six matches have been both sides scoring. There were three straight games against Spurs, Union Berlin and Inter where BTTS No was the outcome. There was also a recent 4-0 demolition of Mainz, although BTTS Yes did happen against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg.
Many of the previous Dortmund away games have been both teams find the net. There was a 3-3 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt and that came after a 1-1 draw with Freiburg. You can also keep going back to find more examples of Dortmund BTTS Yes on the road including games against Manchester City, Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen.
Leipzig home matches have regularly seen BTTS Yes happen this season. Four of the past five clashes featuring the Red Bull side have involved the net bulging at both ends. That includes a 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg and it's only a 2-0 German Cup defeat at the hands of Bayern Munich where Leipzig have failed to score across the past twelve matches.
First Goalscorer
Yan Diamonde is a potential superstar and the teenager is into double figures for the season. The Ivory Coast forward represented his country during AFCON and he was on target during that 2-2 draw with Wolfsburg. There was a hat-trick at the beginning of December as part of a 6-0 hammering of Eintracht Frankfurt.
Christoph Baumgartner has a similar total for the season and the Austrian recently returned to scoring ways when pilfering two goals away to Cologne to help his team win. Brajan Gruda has recently joined on loan from Brighton and he was quick to make his mark against Wolfsburg.
Serhou Guirassy has been with Dortmund since the summer of 2024 and might just be finding his best form. There were two goals against Heidenheim before a goal at Wolfsburg and then another brace against Mainz. We know that he's on penalty duties for the visitors and he's now bidding to score for the fourth game running.
Max Beier is another forward who appears to be finding his scoring touch, with the German youngster on target against Mainz and that brings him to seven for the campaign. Julian Brandt is an experienced campaigner who has double figures for the season and he has six goals across the past ten matches.