Match Result: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
There aren’t many Barcelona home matches where you can back the Catalan side at 1.80 to win the game. Their form at the Nou Camp has been superb so far. This amounts to six straight wins, scoring eighteen goals and conceding just three. The campaign on home soil was delayed although a 6-0 victory against Valencia was followed by a 3-0 triumph over Getafe.
Then came more slender wins against Sociedad and Girona before a routine 3-1 win against Elche and a 4-0 hammering of Athletic Bilbao after the international break. However, they have suffered a Nou Camp defeat this term, with Paris Saint-Germain claiming a deserved 2-1 triumph on 1 October. Diego Simeone will have watched this game with interest in a bid to try and engineer a positive result in this clash.
A defeat for Atletico Madrid would leave them with too much ground to catch up on the big two in Spain. Atleti have two wins, three draws and a defeat in the space of six away clashes domestically. That loss happened in their first game at Espanyol, with the team then claiming 1-1 draws away to Alaves, Celta Vigo and Mallorca. More recently, there have been successes away to Real Betis and Getafe.
Simeone’s men had won five games straight before a recent Champions League clash against Inter. Before that excellent run, they lost 4-0 to Arsenal although the game was level until the 57th minute when Gabriel was able to find the breakthrough for the Gunners. Therefore, this match will not prove daunting for a well-drilled team who can be defensively strong against tough opposition.
We don’t think Barcelona are a banker bet despite a win in their favour being the most likely outcome. There’s the chance that the visitors can engineer a draw, especially considering the fixture schedule.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals does tend to happen in Barcelona matches. We know that this side are capable of covering this line themselves. The odds are around 1.44 right now and that suggests a 70% probability that we see at least three goals. There have been twenty-three goals scored across six Nou Camp matches, so an average of four indicates that punters might want to bring Over 3.5 Goals into the reckoning.
It's no surprise that Barcelona are the highest-scoring side at home in La Liga. They carry a lively goal threat and take a very attack-minded approach to their games. However, they won’t have the red carpet rolled out for them by Atletico Madrid. In Atleti’s six away clashes, there have only been twelve goals scored. They’ve notched seven and also conceded five along the way. For Simeone, a 0-0 or 1-1 draw could be a great way forward going into the festive break.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is trading at exactly the same price as Over 2.5 Goals. Out of the two outcomes, we marginally prefer the former. We think Barcelona are virtually certain to score. However, 50% of their games at the Nou Camp in La Liga have also seen the opposition score. Paris Saint-Germain bagged two during their victory and we also saw Olympiakos notch a consolation goal in their Champions League encounter.
It was also noticeable how Club Brugge were recently able to score three times as part of a 3-3 draw. That Champions League thriller in early November was followed by Barcelona winning 4-2 away to Celta Vigo. The mantra remains to outscore the opposition and it usually works out that way.
Atletico Madrid generally take a different approach. They have only conceded five goals in their six away clashes this season. In the recent five-match winning run, three of the games ended BTTS No. Three of the four clashes between the teams last season ended in a BTTS Yes outcome and some of the games were really high-scoring.
Atleti actually won this fixture last term when scoring a 2-1 success before a crazy 4-4 draw was played out in the Copa del Rey. Barca then won 4-2 in Madrid before a more low-scoring 1-0 success for the Catalan side in the domestic cup at the beginning of April.
First Goalscorer
Robert Lewandowski is likely to lead the line in this clash and the Pole shows no sign of stopping at the age of 37. He has eleven for the season and was on target against Athletic Bilbao, with a hat-trick coming away at Celta Vigo. Although he’ll be a popular first scorer selection, there could be merit in looking at an alternative.
Ferran Torres is a quality operator who has eleven goals on the board and two of those came after the international break. His brace against Athletic Bilbao was the second time he scored two in a game, with the previous two-timer coming against Getafe. He’s likely to operate in an attacking midfield position and could well find a way to score.
Lamine Yamal is also likely to be a warm order, with the young Spaniard having racked up four goals in the space of six games. He scored in three consecutive encounters against Elche, Club Brugge and Celta Vigo, with the star looking to continue driving Barcelona through to a title success.
Antoine Griezmann had a short spell with Barcelona and could now be the architect of their downfall, with the player finding the net twice against Levante in a November encounter. He was also on the scoresheet against Real Madrid as part of that crazy 5-2 win that came after trailing 2-1 in the game.