Match Result: Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Barcelona are understandably warm favourites to land a victory in this Sunday night match. Odds of 1.65 suggest that Barca have a roughly 60% chance of securing three points before the international break. Hansi Flick’s side have only won three of their six away games this term, with twelve goals being scored although there have also been ten conceded.
The Blaugrana have suffered a few bumps in the road this term. They lost 2-1 at home to PSG in the Champions League before a 4-1 La Liga humbling at the hands of Sevilla. More recently, there was a 2-1 defeat in El Clasico. The ship was steadied with a 3-1 Nou Camp victory against Elche although they don’t look like bankers to us.
Celta Vigo are yet to register a home win this season after six attempts. Claudio Giráldez has seen his team lose at home to Getafe in the opening game of the campaign. There were then a string of 1-1 draws against the likes of Real Betis, Villarreal and Girona. After beating PAOK Salonika in the Europa League, there were two more 1-1 draws against Atletico Madrid and Sociedad.
Los Celestes have enjoyed some recent bright form before their Thursday clash against Dinamo Zagreb. There was a 2-1 Europa League success before an exciting 3-2 win away to Osasuna in La Liga. Last weekend came a 2-1 victory in Levante and they will look to carry this strong domestic form into the Sunday encounter.
The fact that so many draws have been clocked up means that we can wager on the game to end all square. It’s hard to be too confident in a Barcelona side who haven’t addressed their defensive issues. We think that you could at least side with Celta on the handicap market with a one-goal start as we see the scoreline being a close one.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at odds of 1.50. This implies a 66% chance that three or more goals will be scored. That is partly down to the fact that twenty-two have been scored in six Barcelona away games this season. That’s nearly an average of four and the majority of their games on the road have been open ones. The campaign began with 3-0 and 3-2 win away to Mallorca and Levante respectively.
Following a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano, the Over 2.5 Goals outcome happened when the Catalan side travelled to Newcastle (1-2), Real Oviedo (1-3), Sevilla (4-1) and Real Madrid (2-1). On the basis on these scorelines, you might even consider pushing the boat out and opting for Over 3.5 Goals to be scored.
The converse argument is that Celta Vigo have had all those 1-1 draws at home. Every single one of their games at Balaidos have seen Under 2.5 Goals happen. Indeed, it has been exactly two that have been registered in every single one of those matches.
BTTS
The odds for BTTS Yes are exactly the same as Over 2.5 Goals. The past five Celta Vigo home games have ended in a 1-1 scoreline. This suggests that they’re running a tight ship and able to nullify all types of opposition. A draw would definitely be a good result against a team like Barcelona and perhaps they will adopt a more pragmatic game plan as a result.
A trip to Zagreb on Thursday night is far from ideal. Barcelona will be on a quest to ensure they score enough goals to win the game. There have now been eight straight Barca games in all competitions where BTTS Yes has happened. It has also happened in the previous six Barcelona matches on the road, with a 3-0 victory at Mallorca the only time where they’ve kept an away clean sheet.
The Barcelona defence cannot be trusted. That 4-1 defeat at Sevilla remains in the memory even though the sting in the tail was two goals for the home side when the Catalan team were going in search of an equaliser. We quite like the idea of Barcelona finding a way to win this game along with BTTS Yes. They have a relatively straightforward game away to Club Brugge in the Champions League before this encounter.
First Goalscorer
Ferran Torres returned to the scoresheet against Elche when notching his team’s second goal of the game. That came shortly after Lamine Yamal broke the deadlock and the latter has now bagged in two of the past three games. He converted a penalty against Olympiakos and perhaps the stage is set for the eighteen-year-old to start going on a scoring streak.
However, Torres has has seven goals for the season and is perhaps a more reliable source of goals. Marcus Rashford has a similar goal return and he was at the double in that recent Champions League encounter. He also scored recently against Elche and there was that brace at Newcastle, with the forward aiming to break back into the England side.
Borja Iglesias is a talented Spanish forward who has scored six goals this season. Interestingly for the 32-year-old, they came in a consecutive streak of a half dozen matches. The scoring run came in home games against Villarreal and Girona before he was able to net against Rayo Vallecano, Stuttgart, Elche and PAOK. However, the goals have since stopped.
Even so, this guy is a Spanish international who will be bidding to take advantage of a weaker Barcelona defence. Iago Aspas can also be respected and he’s managed to recently notch three games on the bounce.