Valencia v Atletico Madrid Match Result
An Atletico Madrid victory is regarded as the likeliest outcome on the Full-Time Result market. The Spanish La Liga betting sites make them a 50% chance of recording a weekend success at the Mestalla and they haven’t been completely convincing on the road this term. There have only been five wins from the eleven road trips and perhaps the away form will effectively stop them from landing the Spanish title this term.
There have been a couple of recent 1-1 draws which can be regarded in a different slant. The scoreline at the Bernabeu was a fantastic outcome, with Julian Alvarez scoring an impudent penalty to break the deadlock before Atleti were pegged back by a Kylian Mbappe equaliser and that was a favourable outcome in the Madrid derby.
However, there was another 1-1 scoreline against Celta Vigo where there was a red card for Pablo Barrios in the opening exchanges and that was very much two points dropped which puts additional pressure on this fixture to avoid it being three games on the bounce without a victory for the title contenders.
As for Valencia, they will have to roll up their sleeves and battle hard to avoid finishing in the bottom three of the division. The main issue for Los Che has been the away form and the complete lack of victories, although there have been five victories and three draws in the twelve home encounters.
Despite being spanked twice by Barcelona recently, there have been home victories registered against Celta Vigo and Leganes, with Valencia scoring a late equaliser away to Villarreal last weekend and there’s a decent case for Los Che and the draw on the Double Chance market.
Goals Under/Over
It’s hardly a surprise to find that Under 2.5 Goals is trading at around the 1.66 mark. That implies that there’s a 60% chance that two goals or less will be scored. Valencia will be focused on edging this encounter and they’ve largely been able to keep things tight at the Mestalla Stadium. Only fourteen goals have been conceded in twelve home encounters and they were able to shut out Leganes before only shipping one goal at Villarreal.
As for Atletico Madrid, away games have generally been low-scoring this term. We have seen twenty-three goals scored in eleven away contests, with this being an average of slightly more than two per match on the road. Diego Simeone knows how to organise a defence and their 1-1 draw at the Bernabeu illustrated their ability to nullify one of the strongest attacks in European club football.
BTTS
It’s generally the case that if Under 2.5 Goals is trading at odds-on, then BTTS No will be available at a similar price. The bookies make it marginally more likely that this outcome will happen compared to BTTS Yes, with defences potentially being on top for the majority of the ninety minutes and Valencia would be happy to take a point and move on.
Atleti have run a tight ship defensively on the road this term. It’s a great achievement to only concede eight goals in their eleven away clashes, with this suggesting that Valencia might not create too many meaningful chances. However, Los Che have found the net eighteen times this term in front of their own fans.
Four of the past seven Valencia matches in all competitions have been BTTS No and this covers the goalless draw along with 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 wins for either side. We’re particularly interested in the 1-0 win either way, with the sides likely to shut up shop if they manage to get their noses in front. It’s worth noting that the previous five meetings between these sides have ended BTTS No although it was Los Che who claimed a 3-0 win in this fixture last term.
First Goalscorer
Julian Alvarez has scored seventeen goals for Atletico Madrid in all competitions this term and the former Manchester City forward could be the difference maker at the Mestalla Stadium. The 25-year-old has only found the net once in the past six encounters although that was a confident Panenka at the Santiago Bernabeu and perhaps he’ll be the one to step forward from the penalty spot this time around.
Antoine Griezmann is a trusted lieutenant of Diego Simeone and the Frenchman has bagged fifteen goals this term, with the former Barcelona forward having recently scored two away to Red Bull Salzburg in the Champions League before scoring against Mallorca in the Spanish La Liga, with the forward likely to be a popular selection.
Valencia have Hugo Duro leading the line and perhaps the Spaniard can add to his tally of seven for the season, having recently notched against Barcelona and Sociedad. Luis Rioja could be a decent shout at bigger odds and the 31-year-old has nabbed five goals this season, with the latest of these goals coming against Celta Vigo and there could be more from this player.