Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
Real Madrid are not seen as bankers to win this Supercopa semi-final encounter. Although Los Merengues are favourites to claim a normal-time win, the odds of 2.35 imply just a 43% chance of success against opposition who aren't easily beaten. Xabi Alonso will hope that his star players are able to help the team get over the line and the team's recent form has been pretty strong.
Since losing a Champions League clash against Manchester City, there have been four straight victories for Real. The latest of these saw an emphatic 5-1 success against Real Betis where Gonzalo Garcia was the star man. The young Spaniard was able to pilfer a hat-trick, with Raul Asencio and Fran Garcia also getting in on the act.
Things are unlikely to be as straightforward against more difficult opponents. Atletico Madrid had a difficult start in December when losing successive clashes although they were then able to string together four successive wins. This included a 3-2 Champions League success at PSV and a 3-0 La Liga victory at Girona.
Although Atleti are somewhat off the pace of the leading two sides in La Liga, they have only tasted defeat in three of their nineteen La Liga clashes this term. Therefore, it's not sensible to oppose them too much of the time. There's the definite chance that the game ends level and we have to remember their previous meeting where Real were found wanting.
Despite racing into a 2-1 lead in the lion's den, Atletico were able to turn the game on its head and win by an astonishing 5-2 scoreline. Julian Alvarez was the chief architect of the victory and we would argue that there could be value in taking the outsiders and the draw on the Double Chance market considering that the clash could be a tight one.
Goals Under/Over
On the basis that this is a winner-takes-all clash along with the fact that seven goals were scored in their opening meeting this term, it's no surprise to find Over 2.5 Goals trading as favourite. There's not a great deal of difference between the Overs and Unders and it's plausible to find a situation where both teams defend stoutly and refuse to concede the opening goal.
However, many of Atletico's recent matches have seen the goal return prove high. Before that 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad, there were four straight games where we saw Over 2.5 Goals happen. Simeone will want his team to get on the front foot although they did only have two shots on target in that recent encounter.
Real can clearly cover the 2.5 goal line themselves and they are fresh from putting five past Real Betis, with Xabi Alonso's side notching forty-one times across twenty La Liga games.
BTTS
According to the Spanish Supercopa odds, there's a 64% chance that we will see both teams find the net in this encounter. The previous clash between the two Madrid rivals was an open one, with Real claiming two and Atletico scoring five. Therefore, it's highly realistic that each team will score at least once in a game where the stakes are high.
Four of the past five Atletico Madrid games have seen a BTTS Yes outcome, with plenty of players able to find the net for the Mattress Makers. They'll be up against a side who will be at their strongest for the chance to go through and exact some revenge. Real will also be motivated by that heavy defeat to Barcelona in the Supercopa final last term.
The BTTS No option only makes sense if you expect Diego Simeone to shut up shop in this game. While the team came from 2-1 down to win their opening fixture of the season, that was at home and perhaps he will be more pragmatic at a neutral venue, knowing Real can be highly dangerous.
There's always the option to combine a Real win with BTTS Yes if you feel as though they can outscore a team. There's a possibility that the game could lead to a shootout considering it has to be decided on the night.
First Goalscorer
Step forward Gonzalo Garcia who has come out of the shadows at Real Madrid this season. Do we have another superstar on our hands? The 21-year-old had been largely limited to bit-part appearances this term before getting a start against Real Betis and the Spaniard was able to produce fireworks when notching a hat-trick at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The presence of Garcia in the team was largely down to the absence of Kylian Mbappe and it remains to be seen whether the Frenchman will line up from the start in this match. It's clearly hard to argue against stats which have seen the striker score an incredible thirty-four goals this term, although perhaps Vinicius Junior is a player who could deputise well in any absence.
As for Atletico Madrid, Antoine Griezmann has often been a thorn in the side of Real Madrid during his career, although Julian Alcaraz is the player most likely to cause problems in the attacking third. The 25-year-old has landed eleven goals this term and will be bidding to return to the scoresheet after three games without finding the net.