Fenerbahce v Aston Villa Betting Tips
There's not much to separate Fenerbahce and Aston Villa when it comes to the match result odds for this Europa League showdown. The former might be the value bet at a current 2.62. A win would elevate them to a top eight position and a chance of going through as a seeded side. Domenico Tedesco's team are not accustomed to losing in front of their own fans and perhaps this advantage can help them to the three points.
In the Super Lig, they have won six games and drawn two of their eight played at Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium, with the Sarı-Lacivertliler having scored nineteen goals and conceded just seven. Recent form has been excellent, with Fenerbahce having landed a 4-0 success away to Brann before thrashing Konyaspor by the same scoreline. There was then a 3-0 triumph away to Eyupspor before Christmas.
The Turkish side will have not had a game for practically a month when they resume against Alanyaspor in the Super Lig before clashing with Villa. On the one hand, they will be well rested and fresh. On the other, it might be that they are somewhat rusty and facing a Villa side who are well in the groove after playing through the festive period.
We would contend that Emery may rest key players here. He's done it before in this competition and five wins on the board means that Villa are in great shape in the Europa League. They will be confident of beating RB Salzburg in their final game which is likely to afford them seeded status. Therefore, perhaps this is a clash where Emery does rest his star players and give them the night off.
The match takes place before a difficult trip to St James' Park and Villa will face the same opponents in the FA Cup next month. Therefore, we think the home win is worth taking here but it's worth waiting on team news.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies make Over 2.5 Goals a slightly shorter price than Under 2.5 Goals. Before that 4-0 win away to Brann, there had been a modest number scored across the first five Fenerbahce matches in the Europa League. Tedesco's team were held to a 1-1 draw by Ferencvaros at the end of November, while that came after a goalless draw away to Viktoria Plzen.
There had been another low-scoring clash when the Turkish side enjoyed a 1-0 success over Stuttgart, with the first two group games seeing higher-scoring affairs. There's little doubt that they are inferior to Villa's first team and perhaps they will be targeting a low-scoring victory.
Villa's games generally result in three goals or more. At the time of writing, only a goalless draw at Selhurst Park was the last time in ten matches where we have seen two goals or less. Emery wants to play attacking football and that generally means the net bulges.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes outcome has a 64% chance of happening according to the latest Europa League odds. Aston Villa are often engaged in matches where both teams find the net. Between winning 4-3 at Brighton in early December all the way through to a 2-1 FA Cup success away to Tottenham, nine of ten encounters featuring the Villans have resulted in a BTTS Yes outcome.
That includes a 2-1 Europa League win in Basel and it's often the case that the English side simply outscore their opponents in order to win the game. A 2-1 winning scoreline seems to materialise on a frequent basis, with the same winning scoreline being enjoyed against Young Boys.
Emery has a team where a number of players can find the net, with Morgan Rogers having pilfered eight this term and the likes of Ollie Watkins, Emi Buendia and John McGinn are also capable of finding the net. However, it all comes down to whether Emery fields his big guns who have a good chance of scoring.
Fenerbahce don't have anything like the same ratio of BTTS Yes games, although they nearly always find the net in front of their own fans.
First Goalscorer
Ollie Watkins may well start this match. He was only a 65th minute sub in an FA Cup victory at Tottenham and perhaps he could be the player to back here. The England striker has four goals in the space of five matches, with the forward having found form and it could be difficult for the home side to contain him.
John McGinn was recently at the double when firing home two goals against Nottingham Forest and could be relied upon to step up here. Morgan Rogers was back on the scoresheet at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and may also be involved, although a lot depends on team news. Perhaps Donyell Malen will lead the line and he's shown plenty of ability in this competition thus far.
As for the home side, they have plenty of players featuring near the top of the scoring charts. Talisca ended the year in superb form, with the Brazilian firing in a hat-trick away to Brann before following that up with a brace against Konyaspor and one more to cap off a memorable 2025.
Marco Asensio has notched in consecutive matches for the home side and the Spaniard has previously enjoyed a successful spell with Villa. Perhaps he will return to haunt them in this Thursday night showdown.