Aston Villa v Freiburg Betting Markets
Aston Villa have been long-time favourites to win the 2025/26 Europa League. It's therefore no surprise that the Midlands side have navigated their way through to the final, with the Galatasaray Stadium in Istanbul playing host to a showdown on Wednesday 20 May. Their opponents are SC Freiburg, with the German side having scored plenty of goals en route to the final.
Julian Schuster's side sit seventh in the Bundesliga standings after a solid season, with the Breisgau Brazilians having ended up fifth in the table last term. It's no surprise that their domestic form has dropped a little considering that they overachieved last season along with the fact that the European campaign has clearly taken its toll.
Freiburg are a massive 4.75 to win in normal time which gives them around a 20% chance to claim a victory, with some impressive scorelines having been landed in the competition. There was that 3-1 home triumph over Braga and that came after a 6-1 aggregate success against Celta Vigo which involved a 3-0 home win before claiming a 3-1 triumph in Spain.
However, it could be a good deal harder against an Aston Villa team who prospered against Bologna when recording a 7-1 aggregate win over the Serie A side. The way in which they dismantled a spirited Nottingham Forest team was highly impressive and we can see another big effort in order to get over the line.
Perhaps the outsiders will be able to produce a strong effort and take the game into extra-time. This is one of the biggest games in the German club's history and they might relish their role as underdogs. It's hard to read too much into recent form considering that all roads lead to Istanbul and players are already being rested for domestic encounters.
Goals Under/Over
Under 2.5 Goals is trading at a shade of odds-on. This is despite the fact that five of Freiburg's six European knockout clashes have seen at least three goals scored. There was a 5-1 demolition of Genk before the Bundesliga scored three times home and away against Celta Vigo. There was then a 2-1 defeat at Braga before a 3-1 win over the same opponents.
Villa's two quarter final matches involved Over 2.5 Goals and a 1-0 defeat at the City Ground was followed by a 4-0 win at Villa Park. We do think that a higher-scoring affair could be on the cards. There might be an attacking approach deployed by both sides, especially as Freiburg will have seen the way Forest failed to stop their opponents.
The past three matches at the time of writing have seen three or more goals scored. Indeed, the previous two encounters have seen four goals scored, with Ollie Watkins back on the scoring trail and he will be flanked by talented operators such as Morgan Rogers and Emi Buendia.
BTTS
The bookies are leaning towards BTTS No with their betting odds. This is partly down to it being a one-off final with so much at stake. The first goal is always important but Aston Villa might have the knowhow to get their noses in front and then shut out Freiburg. This is something they were able to do against Forest in the semis although they did have home advantage.
We would much rather back BTTS Yes considering the goal threat that Freiburg also carry. It was no mean feat to score three goals home and away against Celta Vigo. They were also involved in two BTTS Yes games in their semi-final clash against Braga. The German side might need to go in search of goals during the game in order to stay in the final.
Perhaps an Aston Villa win can be combined with both teams to score. At the time of writing, Unai Emery's team have conceded in their previous five Premier League matches. Yes, the Spaniard has been resting players accordingly for European competition, although they have conceded forty-six times in the top-flight this term.
First Goalscorer
Ollie Watkins is up to twelve top-flight goals for the season and the England forward has eighteen across all competitions. The striker is finding some form as the campaign comes to a close, with the former Brentford man notching against Nottingham Forest in the semi-final second leg clash before finding the net against Burnley.
It means that Watkins has eight goals across ten games in all competitions and his pace could stretch a Freiburg side not renowned for their defending. If we look at the team that started against Forest, Morgan Rogers played that familiar central attacking midfield role and lasted nearly the entire match. He could be the man for the big occasions here.
John McGinn is a Villa hero and the Scot bagged two late goals in the semi-final second leg, with the former Hibernian man capable of finding pockets of space to find the net. As for Freiburg, they carry a lively scoring threat and Igor Matanovic was recently on target with a brace away to Hamburg.
Perhaps veteran defender Lukas Kubler can offer a threat from set pieces and was recently at the double against Braga, with Italian Vincenzo Grifo also capable of getting on the scoresheet for the underdogs.