Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa Betting Markets
The Europa League betting sites are finding this a difficult game to call. The odds suggest that the bookies regard Aston Villa as the better side and that is reflected in the qualification odds. Unai Emery's side are 1.57 to go through which suggests a 60% likelihood that the Villans are lining up in the final.
However, the City Ground is likely to be bouncing on 30 April, with Nottingham Forest having a chance of lining up against Sporting Braga or Freiburg in the Europa League final. Vitor Pereira has done some sterling work since the former Wolves man has come in to try and get a tune of out a squad who qualified for this competition by virtue of their league form last term.
Forest's recent form has been strong. Since losing 1-0 at home to Midtjylland, there have been seven consecutive games where they're recorded a win or draw. This includes turning things around in Denmark to continue their participation in the tournament, before the Tricky Trees went to Tottenham and showed character to secure a 3-0 win.
They were also able to overcome Porto 2-1 on aggregate to reach the semi-final stage, with the defence returning to its previous watertight best, with Matz Sels operating behind a familiar back four. There's also been some excellent form shown my Morgan Gibbs-White who recently scored a hat-trick against Burnley.
Aston Villa are likely to be tough to beat in this first leg clash. Since losing 3-1 at Old Trafford, Unai Emery's side have found excellent form. It's been five wins out of six and the only team to deny them a victory was Forest as the teams played out a 1-1 draw. A Murillo own goal was cancelled out by a Neco Williams equaliser before the interval, with both sides having registered a similar number of shots on target.
Goals Under/Over
The recent 1-1 draw at the City Ground between these teams suggests that a low-scoring encounter could be on the cards. A tight clash may happen between two fairly in-form sides, with no quarter likely to be given in a first leg. After all, Aston Villa would love to be level going to Villa Park for the second leg and they'll aim to be defensively compact although Unai Emery's team do carry a scoring threat.
Bear in mind that Villa did recently play out a 4-3 success over Sunderland and they previously put Bologna to the sword by a 4-0 scoreline. They also claimed a 3-1 success in Italy although we might not expect them to find the net so regularly against a team who have gone back to defensive basics.
Forest's 4-1 win over Burnley was preceded by a clutch of low-scoring encounters. There were three consecutive games where less than three goals were scored and that includes a 1-0 victory over Porto where Forest profited from the opposition getting an early red card.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds are available at slightly shorter than BTTS No. In the previous two encounters this season, the former has happened. However, there's little between the two selections in terms of price, with an argument to be made for at least one team failing to score.
We think that a goalless draw could well be on the cards here. Pereira's side played out a goalless draw against Fulham and they'll be targeting a clean sheet in this clash. Achieving this would give them a realistic chance of going through and a Forest victory might be achieved by a 1-0 scoreline.
Similarly, if Aston Villa get their noses in front, they will fancy their chances of managing the game. Let's not forget that the Villans were cruising towards a 3-1 success against Sunderland recently before a late sting in the tail forced them to be offensive enough to nab an injury-time winner.
Another 1-1 scoreline could easily happen and we've seen this type of game played out before. We just lean towards BTTS No in the knowledge that neither team will want to be out of the tie at the halfway stage.
First Goalscorer
Aston Villa have scored eight goals in the past two games at the time of writing. There were four different scorers against Bologna as part of a 4-0 win, with Ollie Watkins breaking the deadlock on that occasion. The England striker has had something of a frustrating season in front of goal, although his brace against Sunderland means he's managed sixteen for the campaign.
Watkins has racked up six goals in the previous five games and this sort of form suggests he's the player most likely to find the net. Morgan Rogers could also be a man for the big occasion and the attacking midfielder will be eager to add to his tally of thirteen for the campaign. He's managed to score on consecutive occasions after a spell of twelve games without a goal.
Forest's hopes might rest with Morgan Gibbs-White considering the midfielder caught fire against Burnley to score a hat-trick. It was the same player who bagged the winner against Porto in the quarter final second leg clash and he was also on target as part of that 3-0 win at Tottenham.
Chris Wood is back in the fold, with the New Zealand forward having plenty to recommend him based on last season's exploits. It seems a long time since that brace against Brentford in that opening game of the campaign.