Brazil v Japan Betting Markets
So far, so good for Brazil. For all the claims of this being a weak version of the national team, they have done what has been required of them. Two wins, a draw, seven goals scored and just once conceded. They were tested by Morocco in their opener and fell behind before some individual brilliance from Vinicius Junior helped them secure a point.
A 1-1 scoreline was about fair before routine wins against Haiti and Scotland. Those 3-0 victories taught us very little although a match against Japan will definitely represent more of a challenge. The bookies odds of 1.72 about Brazil imply a probability that they have a 58% chance of succeeding in normal time although the Blue Samurai will be stubborn.
The Asian side are unbeaten so far in this tournament. They earned a 2-2 draw against Netherlands before a routine 4-0 success over Tunisia. Then came a 1-1 draw against Sweden where Japan had a much bigger XG against the Scandinavian side and took the lead through Daizen Maeda before Anthony Elanga cancelled out that goal.
The two teams met in October in the Kirin Challenge Cup where the Brazilians raced into a 2-0 lead before their opponents overhauled that advantage to claim a success. It has now been ten games and counting since Japan last lost a game against any opponent, with the defence fairly strong and we wouldn't be surprised to find extra-time here.
The draw clearly represents the best value out of the three options. Brazil have a strong defence of their own and we could well see a goalless scoreline or perhaps a 1-1. We know that the Japanese will be fighting for their lives, with this unbeaten run surely giving them an opportunity to make their opponents sweat before coming through with a victory.
Goals Under/Over
There's a trend with these Last 32 World Cup matches to see the Under 2.5 Goals odds priced shorter than Over 2.5 Goals. This is certainly the case for this match at the NRG Stadium in Houston. This is the second knockout game of the competition, with a cagey opening expected considering that the jeopardy has been ramped up all of a sudden.
You could argue that Japan have been battle-hardened considering that they've navigated their way through a tougher group. The Blue Samurai were made to work hard for their point against Netherlands and then showed Tunisia no mercy. They held the upper hand against Sweden and we expect them to be difficult to break down.
The Brazilian defence has stood firm against all opposition so far and conceded just one goal across 270 minutes of football. Marquinhos and Gabriel are a central-defensive pairing that won't be breached easily, especially in the air.
BTTS
The BTTS prices are virtually identical to the Over/Under 2.5 Goals odds. However, the plain fact is that the teams played out a 3-2 scoreline back in October. At this World Cup, Brazil have scored on seven occasions and Japan have also managed the same number of goals. Therefore, you could argue that BTTS Yes is a better value bet considering that each side average more than two goals per clash.
It may be that this is more of an attacking game than predicted. Japan will set about aiming to find the net. It has now been ten consecutive matches where the Blue Samurai has been able to find the net. We can assume that they will be operating a mid-block defence which gives them the chance to go forward in numbers in search of goals.
Brazil are also a team who can score in lots of ways. Matheus Cunha is the man trusted with the esteemed centre forward position, while Vinicius Junior is having a rum old time in front of goal and often appears to be the furthest forward player for the South Americans.
First Goalscorer
Vinicius Junior has well and truly shown up at this World Cup. The Real Madrid star equalised against Morocco before finding the net on the stroke of half-time against Haiti. Then came two more first-half goals for the Brazilian wonder kid against Scotland and it's notable that the 25-year-old has registered all his strikes before the interval.
Vinny is clearly the danger man and perhaps Japan will be targeting the pacy winger, with Rayan potentially preferred to Raphinha on the other flank. It would appear likely that Matheus Cunha will be given the central striking role and the Manchester United man hasn't let his country down. There was a first-half brace against the Haitians before notching against Scotland.
Perhaps the goals might come from the midfield department instead. Captain Marquinhos has scored seven times for his country. We all know about the aerial threat from Gabriel, with the Arsenal man nodding home on several occasions for the Gunners and he will also be one to watch from set pieces.
As for Japan, they have had five different scorers at this tournament. The latest player to find the net was Daizen Maeda and the Celtic man will operate on the left-hand side of attack. Ayase Ueda will take the central striking role and the Feyenoord man has bagged eighteen goals across forty-two games.