Germany v Ecuador Betting Markets
If Germany badly needed to win against Ecuador on Thursday 25 June, you might expect that Die Mannschaft would be heavy odds-on to land a victory. However, they have six points in the bag and top spot in Group E already belongs to them. It explains why you may well get an odds-against quote that the European side manage to land a third maximum haul when they take on El Tri.
Julian Nagelsmann saw his talented team go goal crazy against Curacao when landing a 7-1 success before they were able to pip Ivory Coast 2-1 to confirm top spot in Group E. The manager will therefore look to rest players in New Jersey for this clash although the Germans are still warm favourites to land another victory.
According to the World Cup betting odds, they have a 50% chance of landing a victory. The difficulty with backing them is that we don't know the starting line-up, along with the fact that their motivation is not as strong as Ecuador. However, the players given the opportunity to start will want to compete for a starting berth when it comes to the knockout phase of the competition.
As for the Ecuadorians, they need to score to win. So far, goals have been non-existent. They drew a blank against Ivory Coast and there was a sting in the tail when conceding an injury-time winner. The South Americans then did everything but score against Curacao when racking up an Expected Goals tally of 2.84 against a team who provided some inspirational defending.
Perhaps the value lies with them. Their need is greater than Germany and the fact that they had a total of twenty-seven shots against Curacao and forty-three touches in the opposition box suggests that they can create and score against a team who are coasting to the last 32 stage.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies think there's slightly more chance of Over 2.5 Goals being scored than Under 2.5 Goals. After all, Germany have been involved in games involving eight goals and then three goals. However, the latter clash was altogether more cagey, with Deniz Undav cancelling out Franck Kessie's opener before the same player was able to bag a winner in injury-time.
As for Ecuador, they have been involved in some super low-scoring clashes so far. Their opener against Ivory Coast was heading towards a goalless draw before Amad Diallo was able to score at the death for the Elephants. Then the South American side knocked on the door several times before having to settle for a goalless draw against Curacao.
It means that they need to go for a win against Germany. This could lead to an open game and that explains why the odds are stacked slightly in favour of Over 2.5.
BTTS
Will both teams score when these sides clash at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford? On the one hand, Germany have been involved in two BTTS games and netted a total of nine goals during the course of 180 minutes. On the flip side, Ecuador came into the tournament with a reputation for having a tight defence and there's only been one goal scored across their two matches.
If the South American side fail to find the net in this fixture, their participation in the tournament is over. Therefore, they need to find a way to score against a Germany side who may not be at full strength. Julian Nagelsmann's side have won the group, although they might be in no mood to play at a pedestrian pace and they are favourites to win the match.
It's not an easy game to predict in terms of scoring patterns. However, we do know that the Germans have strength in depth, with Undav coming off the bench to score a brace against Ivory Coast. Jamie Leweling, Nadiem Amiri and Leon Goretzka may all earn starts, with Nagelsmann saving some of his more attacking players for harder assignments.
First Goalscorer
Before you consider a goalscorer bet, you need to make sure of the starting lineups for both teams. We know that Ecuador will be at full strength, with Enner Valencia and Gonzalo Plata likely to be the front two. The former is the captain of the team and the former West Ham forward has scored 49 goals across 107 international appearances.
Plata's international strike rate is far lower with a return of just eight goals across fifty-two appearances. Jordy Caicedo has managed four goals across twenty-one games and he may be tasked with spot kick duties.
As for Germany, Kai Havertz may or may not continue in the attacking positions. The Arsenal forward is on penalty kick duties if he starts and registered a brace against Curacao in his country's World Cup opener. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala only lasted an hour in their first encounter although Florian Wirtz remained on the pitch for ninety minutes and maybe the Liverpool man can be the player who finds the breakthrough.