France v Spain Betting Markets
France completely dominated against Morocco to reach the semi-final stage of the World Cup, with the 2018 champions hoping to regain their title after falling at the final hurdle in 2022. Didier Deschamps will bow out of a long-standing managerial reign in charge of Les Bleus at the end of this tournament, with the coach having captained the team to an initial success as a player back in 1998.
The French are priced at 1.66 to qualify for their third consecutive final, with that suggesting that they have a 60% probability of going through. They have been successful in every encounter thus far, having a shaky start against Senegal before finding their feet and claiming a 3-1 success. There was then a 3-0 victory against Iraq before beating a weakened Norway team by a 4-1 scoreline.
Then followed a facile 3-0 victory against Sweden before edging past a physical Paraguay team in the last sixteen. Morocco somehow kept the French at bay for the first half of their quarter final encounter, although Les Bleus were utterly dominant. Eventually, they found a way through to land a 2-0 success and set up this showdown.
However, it should be noted that they are trading at around 2.35 to claim a normal time win. They certainly won't find it easy against opposition who have not tasted defeat at the World Cup so far either. They recovered from a frustrating goalless draw against Cape Verde to demolish Saudi Arabia before edging past Uruguay by a single goal.
The knockout stage has been fairly straightforward but they'll need to find ways to score against France without actually allowing the opposition to expose any gaps in the defence. The draw certainly isn't out of the question, with these two teams certainly having the potential to cancel each other out until extra-time.
Goals Under/Over
As expected, there's nothing between the Over and Under 2.5 Goals price for this clash. You can make a case for both. The Unders could be appealing for a few reasons. We know that whichever side is able to score first can be effective at managing the game. The bottom line is that both teams are now desperate to appear in the final and there will be a fair amount of mutual respect from both sides.
That could lead to a cagey opening and it's notable that two of France's three knockout games have resulted in two goals or less. Only a Kylian Mbappe penalty separated Les Bleus from Paraguay, while they eventually scored a couple of second-half goals to overcome Morocco although the floodgates didn't well and truly open.
As for Spain, they are strong defensively and have only conceded a single goal in the tournament. That came against Belgium and they'll look to flood the midfield and avoid the ball being played through to those dangerous attacking players.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds are trading at 1.66, suggesting that it's likely that both sides will find the net. Scoring goals hasn't been a problem for France who have added six knockout stage goals to the ten that they managed during the group stage. Their expected goals was around the four mark against Morocco and this is quite simply a team who don't seem to draw blanks.
It's only Paraguay who have really battened down the hatches and made it hard for Les Bleus to create chances. Spain might approach the semi-final in a pragmatic way although the only time that La Roja have failed to score themselves was a goalless draw against Cape Verde.
There was a slender 1-0 win over Uruguay in the last group game and their 2-1 win over Belgium was the first BTTS Yes match of the entire tournament. They run a tight ship defensively but it might be a tall order to stop France in their tracks. Even so, we think that BTTS Yes might feel like a risky bet at the prices.
First Goalscorer
Kylian Mbappe has scored eight goals in this World Cup and he might yet reach double figures. He was able to recover from a saved penalty against Morocco to fire his team into the lead in spectacular fashion against the Atlas Lions. It happened after a converted spot kick ensured that Les Bleus were able to overcome an obstinate Paraguay side.
Mbappe scored twice against Senegal, Iraq and Sweden, with customers potentially looking for the bigger price that he bags a brace against Spain. However, it might be just one goal that ends up settling the clash. Ousmane Dembele has been prominent in that famed French front line, with the PSG man having previously scored a hat-trick against Norway.
As for Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal is the central striker who operates effectively for both Real Sociedad and the national side. Lamine Yamal's performances have been solid rather than spectacular although he can offer a lively threat down the right hand side, with manager Luis de la Fuente likely to stick with Alex Baena on the left flank.
Mikel Merino has often been the right man to find a winner in previous encounters, although Dani Olmo may continue and there will be Rodri and Fabian Ruiz operating in central midfield.