Japan v Sweden Betting Markets
According to the betting odds, Japan have a slightly greater than 50% chance of winning against Sweden when the teams meet on Thursday night. The Blue Samurai look the better team based on the evidence of two group games. They held a dangerous Netherlands side to a 2-2 draw before a comprehensive 4-0 win over Tunisia.
Many people think the Asian side have the potential to go deep in the competition. However, the slight issue is that the runner-up of this group is likely to meet Brazil in the last 32 of the tournament. This is far from an ideal draw, with the Japanese looking to land a win which might just propel them above Netherlands depending on what the latter do.
On the flip side, a defeat for Japan may see them get an easier opponent by virtue of finishing third in the World Cup. Sweden are only on three points after a 5-1 win over Tunisia was followed by a humbling by the same scoreline against the Dutch. Graham Potter will be aware that a defeat here could leave their future participation hopes dangling by a thread.
Therefore, it's an intriguing situation as the teams clash at the AT&T Stadium. The reality is that the Netherlands will be enjoying a handsome win at the expense of Tunisia, with this match potentially ending in a draw. It would leave the order in the group the same, with Sweden maybe happy to take their chances as a third-placed team considering things won't be any more difficult than Brazil.
We aren't sure how each team is going to approach the game although perhaps Japan will be trying their hardest and they have the strongest track record out of the two teams.
Goals Under/Over
The bookies are leaning towards the Overs without any real conviction. There's a possibility that we won't see the same level of goals that has seen Group F encounters average five per match at the moment. If this was the first game of the group stage, we might expect an attack-minded Sweden to score and concede goals. However, the stakes are a little different and the Scandinavian side know that the avoidance of a heavy defeat will send them through.
Japan's defence held fairly firm against the Dutch and then completely shut out Tunisia. We should also note that the Blue Samurai played out 1-0 victories over England and Scotland in the lead-up to this tournament. Bearing that in mind, perhaps the floodgates won't open particularly wide when it comes to this showdown. The Sweden defence was breached on a number of occasions against the Dutch and Potter will want to tighten up in that department.
BTTS
Both teams have scored in each of Sweden's two games thus far. They have lots of attacking weaponry, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres able to find the net, while Anthony Elanga was on target with a consolation against the Dutch. The men in yellow don't seem capable of setting up with a defensive game plan, so perhaps it falls to them to aim to outscore a more disciplined Japan side.
The Asian team scored twice against the Dutch and a further four times against Tunisia. We would imagine that they can carve out chances against a team who don't appear to be very strong at the back. It will be interesting to see if Sweden persist with a back three that includes Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien and captain Viktor Lindelof.
Although the 5-1 defeat against the Dutch in terms of expected goals, the men in orange were still value to score at least three times. On the flip side, the Swedes enjoyed sixteen shots compared to the ten that were notched by the opposition. They also had twenty-six touches in the opposition box although it yielded just a single goal in the end.
First Goalscorer
The Japanese front three ran riot against Tunisia and will now be hungry for more goals. It was Ayase Ueda who was able to land a brace against African opposition and the Feyenoord forward has eighteen goals across forty-one appearances for the Blue Samurai. He operates at a decent club level and averages one per two matches in the Eredivisie which is a decent rate.
Ueda will be flanked by Junya Ito and Daichi Kamada. The former has sixteen for his country in over seventy appearances and might turn into an assist provider rather than a scorer of goals. As for the latter, the player has never scored for club side Crystal Palace although he has fourteen goals in the blue shirt of Japan and can't be easily ignored.
Sweden have a couple of ready sharp shooters, with Potter ready to once again field Gyokeres and Isak in the striking positions. The former has helped Arsenal win the Premier League title and will look to use his physicality to good effect. Isak has had an injury-hit season since switching from Newcastle to Liverpool, although he can be potent in the box and perhaps we'll see Sweden among the goals again.