Mexico v England Betting Markets
England are priced at around the 2.40 mark to claim a normal time victory against Mexico. That suggests that they have a 40% chance of securing the spoils at the Estadio Azteca. The Three Lions have a good team on paper but they've been largely disjointed throughout the competition. You could describe them as a fits and starts team.
There was plenty of encouragement after a 4-2 win against Croatia where England came out of the traps fast in the second half to take the game away from their opponents. However, they have since struggled to break down spirited opposition in the form of Ghana, Panama and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Teams that defend deeply have experienced joy in preventing England creating and scoring chances. However, Harry Kane is arguably the best striker that the country has ever had, with Jude Bellingham also someone who can make thing happen. With this pair, the Three Lions might have an edge.
However, Mexico have piled their way into the last sixteen without a hitch. They were convincing winners of Group A after wins to nil against South Africa, South Korea and Czech Republic. Then came a 2-0 win over Ecuador. All of these victories have been achieved at the Estadio Azteca and they will remain at this home ground when facing a team who quickly have to acclimatise to the altitude.
There could be value in backing the Mexicans at odds of 3.10. El Tri have the bit between their teeth and will have noticed the shakiness in the England defence, with Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones capable of scoring as they demonstrated against Ecuador. The draw could also be a runner which would mean extra-time and penalties.
Goals Under/Over
Under 2.5 Goals is trading as the strong favourite and it's easy to see why. The World Cup betting odds of 1.53 implies that there's a 65% chance of two or less goals being scored. Mexico haven't conceded a goal so far and three of their matches have been low-scoring. They have a strong defence who has achieved four consecutive shutouts, with Johan Vasquez and captain Cesar Montes operating effectively in front of Raul Rangel.
England played out a 4-2 victory against Croatia, although that has been followed by three tighter games. There was a goalless draw against Ghana before a 2-0 victory over Panama. They then overcame Congo by a 2-1 scoreline although the winning goal came late and it was far from an open match.
The game is also going to be played at altitude and that could lead to a slower tempo. There's a huge prize at stake for both teams and we can see it being a cagey encounter.
BTTS
BTTS No is trading at 1.70 which suggests a 60% chance that at least one team will fail to find the net. There's a decent chance that we might see the two sides cancel each other out. A goalless draw could be a contender, especially when you consider that Mexico haven't conceded in this World Cup thus far.
El Tri might have only faced modest opposition in the form of South Africa, South Korea, Czechia and Ecuador. However, it still can't be underappreciated that they have kept a clean sheet for a sum total of 360 minutes. Shut outs have become habit-forming for Javier Aguirre's side and they might operate a safety-first approach in this clash.
England have had two BTTS Yes games and two BTTS No matches. Croatia and Congo both managed to find the net against them, although the Three Lions have only conceded three times across 360 minutes of football. Thomas Tuchel's side have scored in three of their four encounters, with Harry Kane the chief architect of their success thus far.
First Goalscorer
Harry Kane is the best striker on the pitch at the Estadio Azteca and perhaps the Bayern Munich striker can propel England beyond this game to set up a quarter final clash against Brazil or Norway. The former Tottenham forward was essentially the match winner against Congo and the aim will be to feed a player who could also have earned a penalty at an earlier stage of the game.
If it's not Kane for England, then it might be Jude Bellingham who scores. The Real Madrid player has been given license to rove into attacking areas, while there might even be a place in the team for Eberechi Eze. The Arsenal man came on later in the game and it meant that Declan Rice was relegated to a full-back position.
For Mexico, Julian Quinones is the danger man and the striker now has three goals for the tournament. He comes into the tournament off the back of a good season for Al-Qadsiah, with the player having racked up 53 goals in 59 games. Then there's Raul Jimenez who has two on the board for the World Cup, with the new Wolves signing someone who can be a threat from an aerial point-of-view.