Portugal v Croatia Betting Markets
Portugal are trading at World Cup betting odds of 1.75 to claim a victory in this last-32 showdown at BMO Field in Toronto. This suggests that Ronaldo & Co have a roughly 60% chance of claiming a normal time success. This is despite the fact that the Portuguese were held to a 1-1 draw by Congo and were also unable to break down Colombia in the final group game which prevented them from topping the section.
The team look good on paper including the midfield duo of Joao Neves and Vitinha who operate so well for Paris Saint-Germain. There's also Bruno Fernandes in the central attacking midfield position, although Croatia will have a plan to nullify their opponents. The Blazers might be a value bet to claim a victory.
The Croatians always seem to turn up when it comes to major tournaments. The odds imply that Zlatko Dalic's side have a 20% chance of landing a success in normal time although we think that 5.00 is a decent price. They will be going for the win and these players have lots of experience when it comes to the business end of major tournaments.
The outsiders were able to edge past Panama by a single goal before a tight 2-1 victory over Ghana. The slight concern for the Croatians was that their win came despite an XG of 0.42 compared to their opponents' 0.64, although they did have a total of eight shots after finding a way to get past Panama.
We're simply looking for ways to oppose an overrated Portugal side and perhaps we'll consider the draw. This could be a tight affair with no quarter given, with extra-time and penalties potentially on the cards.
Goals Under/Over
Croatia deployed an attacking approach against England and came a cropper, conceding four goals against the Three Lions. We might expect a different kind of game in Toronto and it's noticeable that the Blazers were able to tighten up when seeing out a 1-0 victory against Panama before grinding out a 2-1 victory against Ghana to confirm second place.
However, they have had some high-scoring matches in the past and perhaps can't be trusted from a defensive point-of-view. Their final match of World Cup qualification involved a 3-2 away success at Montenegro, with games against Colombia, Brazil and Slovenia all involving at least three goals.
Portugal have attacking weaponry although that goalless draw against Colombia might see Croatia employ similar tactics in a bid to take the clash to extra-time. The Portuguese will be confident of a clean sheet after successive shut-outs were achieved in their previous two matches.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is the outsider of the two options on this market, suggesting that at least one of these teams will fail to score in Toronto. We know that things often start to get cagier when it gets to the knockout stage of the tournament. There will be plenty of mutual respect shown and the opening exchanges might see Croatia and Portugal feeling each other out.
Despite Cristiano Ronaldo potentially being as much as a hindrance as a help to the cause, there are plenty of players within the Portuguese ranks who can find the net. We know that the favourites are capable of goals, with five being netted against Uzbekistan. However, they conceded against Chile and Nigeria in friendlies before Congo also found the net.
Croatia's big concern is that their defence was stress-tested against England and conceded four times. Perhaps this was a game where they had nothing to lose against the strongest Group L opponents. Between November and March, there were four consecutive BTTS Yes clashes before a 2-0 defeat against Belgium. Then came another couple of BTTS Yes games.
First Goalscorer
Will Cristiano Ronaldo prove to be the match winner against Croatia? He was given a full ninety minutes against Colombia but ended up drawing a blank. The Al-Nassr forward has a brilliant international record of 145 goals across 231 appearances for his country, with the 41-year-old having come into the tournament with a ratio of nearly a goal per game in Saudi Arabia.
Pedro Neto and Joao Felix look set to continue as part of the attacking trident behind CR7, with Bruno Fernandes an automatic pick in the CAM role. Perhaps Joao Neves is the man who can unlock a deep-lying defence, with Ruben Dias potentially the centre back who can find the net at a bigger price.
Croatia have had five different scorers at the World Cup thus far. Midfielder Petar Sucic was able to break the deadlock against Ghana before Nikola Vlasic netted the winner. Interestingly, the Torino forward has netted eleven times across sixty-five games for his country although the team have other great options.
Ante Budimir will continue as the central striker, with Martin Baturina having shown for Como in Serie A that he can boast a lively threat from out wide.