Scotland v Brazil Betting Markets
All the money will be coming for Brazil on Wednesday night. They clash with Scotland at the Hard Rock Stadium, with Miami Gardens playing host to the two teams' final Group C encounter of the tournament. It's a late night clash where the Selecao are trading at around the 1.36 mark to land a victory. That implies a probability of around 75% that they will secure three points.
Carlo Ancelotti's side need to win to stay ahead of Morocco and ensure a potentially easier last 32 opponent. A runner-up spot in Group C will mean a likely clash against Netherlands. First place would see them instead play Japan or Sweden. As things stand, the Brazilians have a superior goal difference than their African counterparts, having scored more goals.
The aim is simple for the South American side. Deliver a convincing success and hope that they keep Morocco at bay in terms of goal difference. However, they will be up against opposition who will want to keep the scoreline down. The Scots are huge outsiders to land a victory and it's hard to be too confident about a side who have scored one goal across 180 minutes of football.
A 1-0 success against Haiti was followed by a 1-0 defeat against Morocco. There were a couple of penalty claims that Steve Clarke's side had in the latter game although not many clear-cut scoring chances were created. It's hard to imagine that the manager will deploy an adventurous formation against a team with a deadly attack that picked Haiti off at will when enjoying a 3-0 success.
We think a win for Brazil can be combined with BTTS No to good effect. It may also be worth dipping into the correct score market where a 2-0 and 3-0 win could be worth backing.
Goals Under/Over
The Over 2.5 Goals odds are slightly shorter than Under 2.5 Goals. It basically comes down to the Brazil goal line. The Selecao scored one in their first game and three in their second. Scotland are somewhere between Morocco and Haiti, with Steve Clarke using Scott McTominay and John McGinn to try and protect the defence in this game.
Scotland won't show a huge amount of ambition when it comes to attacking football. It would be something of a surprise if they found the net against a Brazil side who were breached by Morocco once but otherwise looked rock solid. Marquinhos and Gabriel are two of the best central defenders in the world and the same applies to Alisson in the goalkeeper stakes.
We think Unders might just end up being the best outcome but it's a close call and it could be that Brazil are chasing a goal in the last ten minutes.
BTTS
The BTTS No selection looks value at 1.66. We are not expecting Scotland to create a huge number of chances and we think there's a greater chance of this outcome than the odds imply. The Scots had an XG that hovered slightly higher than the 0.5 mark against Morocco, with the British side having their best chances through a couple of penalty claims which may have been awarded on another day.
What will give Clarke encouragement is that Morocco were denied after that super early goal when Saibari gave the Atlas Lions the lead in the second minute. The XG for the African team was only around one and they can adopt a similar approach with tough opposition, with Carlo Ancelotti's side getting the job done early against Haiti.
We think a Brazil win and BTTS No could be the bet to have. Scotland are probably resigned to squeaking through in third place. There's a danger of being too aggressive with tactics and losing by a significant margin which could risk their further participation in the competition.
Che Adams is likely to be deployed as the one player up top, with Lewis Ferguson sitting as a defensive midfielder in front of McTominay and Ryan Christie. It's not something that is likely to yield many goals.
First Goalscorer
Matheus Cunha was given a start by Ancelotti against Haiti and the Manchester United man rewarded the manager by scoring two goals. He's likely to remain in the central attacking role for Brazil and will be flanked by Vinicius Junior and Raphinha in this clash. It was the former who was able to score and it's worth noting that the Real Madrid man has now scored in consecutive clashes.
Vinny Junior managed to fashion a chance out of nothing against Morocco and is maybe the value bet, especially if you are looking for an anytime scorer option on a Bet Builder for this clash. Lucas Paqueta is another option at a bigger price, with the West Ham man very good in the air and also adept at hitting long-range efforts that cause problems for the goalkeeper.
If it boils down to set pieces, then perhaps Marquinhos and Gabriel are great options to find the net. We know that both carry an aerial threat and the same applies to Casemiro who has shown time and again that he can get his head on the ball when it comes to corners and free-kicks.