Morocco v Scotland Betting Markets
Group C has been a low-scoring affair so far. Brazil and Morocco played out a 1-1 draw in New Jersey before Scotland overcame Haiti by a single goal in Boston. The African side will be confident of adding to their goal tally in this second clash, with the Atlas Lions trading at odds of 1.70 to land three points. This price suggests that they have a roughly 60% chance of recording a victory.
There's little doubt that Morocco are one of the strongest teams in Africa. They really took the game to Brazil in their opener, scoring a beauty through Ismael Saibari before being pegged back by Vinicius Junior. They finished ahead of the South American in terms of Expected Goals, having fourteen shots in total and they'll now be confident of getting their first victory of the tournament.
It's been a long time since the Moroccans lost a football match. They claimed an AFCON success before recording wins against Paraguay, Burundi and Madagascar in the build-up to the World Cup. They then played out a 1-1 draw with Norway before achieving the same scoreline against Brazil.
Scotland are top of Group C after beating Haiti and they will now look to acquit themselves well when facing Morocco in the same stadium. The odds suggest that Steve Clarke's side have a 20% chance of landing a victory and delighting the Tartan Army although the draw is a more realistic aim. There's around a 30% chance that the game can finish all square and much depends on how well the Scots are able to defend.
Grant Hanley and Jack Hendry will be tested at the heart of defence, with Andy Robertson having to deal with the attacking threat of flying full-back Achraf Hakimi, with Brahim Diaz causing mayhem in the middle of the park and we feel as though a Morocco win is by far the most likely outcome.
Goals Under/Over
Under 2.5 Goals is the big favourite on the goals market. There's a greater than 60% chance of that happening and it's easy to see a low-scoring encounter. Scotland would gladly take a draw and if the game finished level, it would probably be a 0-0 or 1-1 scoreline. Then there's the fact that the Scots are relatively toothless in attack and Morocco will be confident that they can achieve a clean sheet.
We should also bear in mind that the fate of the third-placed sides could come down to goal difference. Scotland won't want to be defeated but the worst case scenario is to lose heavily and be affected in the overall standings that way. Therefore, we might expect the Scots to keep with a similar game plan whether they are level or trailing.
We're not sure that Scotland will fashion many chances over the ninety minutes. Apart from some individual brilliance from Vinny Junior, Brazil couldn't find a way through and it doesn't bode well for the Scots.
BTTS
BTTS No is trading at 1.66 which implies that there's around a 60% chance that we'll see at least one team failing to find the net. Morocco are clearly a defensively strong side. They don't concede many goals and the Atlas Lions will be compact against a Scotland team that rely on John McGinn and Scott McTominay for inspiration. However, Ben Gannon-Doak looked bright against Haiti who roams on the right-hand side.
Even so, Scotland's Expected Goals tally against Haiti was 1.05. They had nine shots compared to the opposition's fifteen and it's hard to expect them to fashion many chances against the Atlas Lions. If we think that Morocco are going to land a victory, then it can potentially be paired with BTTS No for a bigger price which is trading at odds-on.
Lawrence Shankland comes into the tournament after a successful time of things for Hearts in the Scottish Premiership and the forward has earned a move to Rangers. However, he and Che Adams are likely to be starved of chances and perhaps only one of them will start this clash considering that a change of formation could be put into place.
First Goalscorer
Achraf Hakimi is the captain of Morocco and it shouldn't be underestimated how far forward he roves for his country. The Paris Saint-Germain defender will get into attacking areas and he has a solid eleven goals from ninety-seven international appearances. He has also scored twenty-eight times for PSG and has been given license to get forward and add a cutting-edge to the attack.
Ismael Saibari has a goal every three games for his country and the PSV Eindhoven forward could be buzzing after breaking the deadlock against Brazil, with the same player leading the line for the Atlas Lions. Brahim Diaz also has an enviable strike rate for his country and the former Manchester City player was notably dangerous in his team's opener.
We assume that Shankland will be given the nod in attack for Scotland unless Steve Clarke instead opts to go with Che Adams simply for the latter's pace. It was John McGinn who scored a fairly scrappy goal to seal the deal against Haiti and the Aston Villa man will look to get into strong scoring positions. Scott McTominay will also carry a threat, especially from set pieces where his strength in the air could count.