Spain v Austria Betting Markets
It was nearly a disaster for Austria during the group stage of the World Cup. A 3-1 success against Jordan was not straightforward in the opener for the European team. Then came the expected defeat against Argentina before the strongly-rumoured draw with Algerian was then played out. However, this final match was not without its drama.
Having taken the lead twice against the Fennec Foxes, Ralf Rangnick's side found themselves down 3-2 in injury-time. A 90+6 equaliser ensured that they were able to continue their participation in the competition, although it was a narrow escape. Perhaps that will give them license to operate with freedom in this showdown.
Nevertheless, odds of 9.50 suggest that they have an implied probability of around 10% that Austria can claim a normal time win. They will have their work cut out against a Spain side who have not conceded a goal in this tournament thus far. La Roja have Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte that form a solid rearguard in front of goalkeeper Unai Simon.
Marcos Llorente and Marc Cucurella operate as effective full-backs and there's plenty to like about the Spanish from an attacking point-of-view. Lamine Yamal needs no introduction and has not got up to full speed after not being fully fit for the start of the tournament. Mikel Oyarzabal might not have star quality but he's someone who delivers for the national side on a frequent basis.
We think that Spain and BTTS No is a solid combination although there's an option to go with the game being a draw at half-time before a Spanish win at full-time. There is potential for the Austrians to nullify their difficult opponents for forty-five minutes, especially with the inevitable hydration break.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at around the 1.80 mark. That suggest that there's a 55% chance that we'll see the ball hit the net at least three times. We're not convinced that this will be a high-scoring encounter and that's for several reasons. For starters, Spain have only notched five goals across three group games. Cape Verde were able to keep them at bay and La Roja only scored on one occasion against Uruguay to cement top spot in the section.
The bottom line is that Spain don't need to go hell for leather in order to win this game. This could be the fourth of eight games that the Spanish play in the tournament. Taking a two-goal lead could see a change of tactics and there's no better team at keeping the ball. Therefore, we would tread carefully when it comes to taking odds-on quotes about Over 2.5 Goals when a 2-0 or a 3-0 win for the Spanish could end up happening.
BTTS
Despite Austria having scored three goals against Algeria in that crazy final group game, Das Team were unable to find the net against Argentina in the preceding match. Ralf Rangnick's side weren't capable of creating too many chances against La Albiceleste and were mainly occupied with stopping Lionel Messi in their tracks.
We can also reflect on the failure of three teams to not manage to score against a rock-solid Spanish defence. Luis de la Fuente's side will have a lot of possession and we're not against the idea of combining BTTS No with a Spanish victory. We can see the favourites coming away with a straightforward 2-0 or 3-0 success.
There's a small case for Austria scoring, especially if they end up chasing the game at 2-0 down. They did achieve an XG of 0.53 against the Argentines before an expected goals amount of roughly 1.50 against Algeria despite only having 35% of possession.
The fact that this is a knockout match indicates that Austria can have a game plan of not having to score in the clash. Extra-time would potentially give them a better chance of going through and there's the leveller that is the penalty shootout too.
First Goalscorer
There have been three different scorers for Spain in the World Cup so far. The first player to find the net was Lamine Yamal when enjoying his first start of the tournament. The Barcelona star was able to get on the end of a cross to break the deadlock against Saudi Arabia although the teenager is likely to be the assistor as much as the scorer based on his numbers to date.
As for Mikel Oyarzabal, he's in the team for a reason. That reason being that he fits the Spanish system. The Real Sociedad forward was able to score two quickfire goals in the opening exchanges against Saudi Arabia to really take the game away from the opposition. The 29-year-old boasts twenty-seven goals across fifty-six matches for his country and he's also netted 100 for Real Sociedad during his career.
The third player to have scored so far is Alex Baena, with the Atletico Madrid player something of a late bloomer at international level. He has only scored two goals for his domestic club, although he's notched three times for Spain since making an international debut in 2023. It's likely that the manager will give him the opportunity to play as part of the attacking trident in this clash.