Canada v Switzerland Betting Markets
Switzerland were the favourites to win Group B before the World Cup began, although they now have a lower than 50% chance of finishing top of the section. They have an inferior goal difference to opponents Canada going into the final section match, with the Swiss needing to record a victory in Vancouver in order to usurp the co-hosts and be in receipt of a better draw.
The Swiss are a 2.45 chance to claim three points, having been denied by Qatar in their opener and they were made to work hard for the spoils against Bosnia. Although they registered a 4-1 success, all of the goals came late and there's a suspicion that the team might be thwarted against spirited hosts.
The World Cup bookmakers make Switzerland around 40% likely to claim a victory on Wednesday night, with the team having been dominant against Bosnia although their Expected Goals came in around two rather than the four they scored. They did deny their opponents many clear-cut chances, with the goals all coming in the final twenty minutes of the encounter.
At the prices, it makes sense to consider the draw. It's an outcome that would suit a Canada side who were able to thrash Qatar by a 6-0 scoreline and they are founded on having a strong defence. The Canucks were able to show character to come from behind to land a 1-1 draw with Bosnia in their opener and Jesse Marsch will ensure they are difficult to break down in this clash.
The winner of Group B will get a Vancouver last 32 clash against a third-placed team, with a potentially winnable last sixteen clash against possibly Colombia or Portugal. We do have to consider that the Canadians may come through with home advantage and perhaps it's worth backing them on the Double Chance market.
Goals Under/Over
The Unders have definitely caught our eye here. There could well be two goals or less in this showdown at BC Place. Despite conceding the opener against Bosnia, the Canadians didn't give much away and worked their way into the game to score an equaliser before laying siege to the opposition goal.
Against Qatar, the defence stood firm although this was against a modest opponent. They will now return to the same ground knowing that a 0-0 or 1-1 draw will be enough to get over the line. Some would argue that the team scoring six goals suggests a higher-scoring affair but things will be somewhat different against the Swiss.
Similarly, that 4-1 winning scoreline hardly looked on the cards for the European side when facing Bosnia until the final twenty minutes of the clash. They are robust enough defensively and any victory that they land could be by a single goal.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is trading a touch shorter in the betting odds than BTTS No. There's a 55% chance of this happening according to the market. The two teams have scored in both of their Group B matches thus far. Canada scored once before adding a further six to make it seven for the tournament. The Swiss did the same in their first game before notching those four late goals.
We do think that BTTS No is better value. If there is a first goal of the game, then whichever side finds the net can certainly protect that lead. We wouldn't be surprised if the game was goalless at the break before Switzerland effectively try to take a few more risks in order to usurp a team who have a superior goal difference.
If the Swiss take the lead, we're fairly confident they can make it difficult for the co-hosts and we think covering the goalless draw along with a 1-0 "away" victory might be a path to profit. The opening of the clash will be a cagey one and that could see the BTTS No odds shorten significantly from the price that is already available right now.
First Goalscorer
Johan Manzambi was an inspired substitute when appearing against Bosnia. The SC Freiburg forward came off the bench in the 72nd minute before scoring in the 74th minute and then notching once again as the clash went into injury-time. The 20-year-old could well be earning a big money move to a bigger club this term and now has five international goals in the space of fourteen appearances.
Breel Embolo is likely to occupy the central striking role for the Swiss and he tends to last most of the matches for his country. The Rennes forward has a solid enough strike rate of twenty-five internationally, while Granit Xhaka may continue with spot kick duties and the Sunderland midfielder is also likely to strike from deep.
As for Canada, Jonathan David was on target with a hat-trick against Qatar and the forward will once again look to make all the difference at BC Place. The Juventus forward has had a stop-start season domestically, although he has a very commendable 42 goals across 79 appearances and looks to be the best bet for this clash.