Match Result: Italy v Norway
Italy will be favourites to win this match. Gennaro Gattuso is the latest man tasked with achieving success with the Azzurri although the former Milan midfielder is going to have to steer the national team through the play-offs in order to reach the 2026 World Cup. The only blot on the qualifying copybook was a 3-0 defeat in Oslo although the inferior goal difference means that even a win here is unlikely to help.
Even so, the team have won their other five clashes against the likes of Israel, Estonia and Moldova. They will hope to achieve a confidence-boosting win and Gattuso has a strong squad at his disposal. On paper, they’re a better team than Norway even if there’s an absence of firepower, with Mateo Retegui having the best scoring record.
The evergreen Gianluigi Donnarumma will operate in front of a sturdy back line that includes Giovanno Di Lorenzo and Alessandro Bastoni. They will be tasked with stopping a certain Norwegian striker in their tracks. Erling Haaland is always a good reason to side with Norway and the Manchester City forward is capable of fireworks against an opposition.
We can’t ignore the fact that Norway beat Italy 3-0 in June. It wasn’t just Haaland that put the Azzurri to the sword on that occasion. Alexander Sorloth was on the scoresheet along with Antonio Nusa, although one negative is that Martin Odegaard is currently sidelined and that robs the team of quality in midfield.
The real up and coming star of this Norwegian team is Thelo Aasgaard who has a goal per game ratio for his country. We ultimately think that Italy might come away with a victory based on the absence of Odegaard and the fact that Norway don’t ultimately need to land a success. Although their qualifying record has been excellent, they are somewhat light in terms of quality.
Goals Under/Over
There have been thirty-two goals scored across six Norway games in World Cup qualifying. The data is somewhat skewed by the two games against Moldova. There was a 5-0 success in Chisinau before an incredible 11-1 success in Oslo. All of the Norwegian qualifiers have ended in three or more goals being scored aside from a 1-0 success at Estonia in June.
Italy have had some crazy games and none zanier than a 5-4 success away to Israel which really laid bare what is good and bad about the team. The Azzurri needed a Sandro Tonali injury-time winner to land the spoils after struggling to live with a late onslaught from the home side.
We think Italy will go for broke in this game to try and fire themselves up for an impending play-off, with this leading to goals being on the cards.
BTTS
Can you really oppose a Norway team who have scored twenty-nine goals in six World Cup qualifiers? The answer is maybe. If you take away Erling Haaland’s twelve goals, it is slimmed down to seventeen. In addition, sixteen of their twenty-nine strikes have come across two matches against Moldova. This is an altogether different assignment.
Solbakken’s team have been red-hot at home. Nineteen goals have been notched against Italy, Israel and Moldova. On the road, they bagged four in Israel and five in Moldova. There was a solitary one in Estonia. The slight issue with this game is that the Nordic side might not have the ball very much, especially without Martin Odegaard in the team.
Italy are good for goals on home soil. There were three scored against Israel, with five notched against Estonia and two were racked up when beating Moldova. We think an Italy win combined with both teams to find the net is perhaps the way forward. That represents a boost on the BTTS Yes option.
With this game being a dead rubber, there won’t be too many defensive tactics on show and that could lead to a high-scoring encounter.
First Goalscorer
Mateo Retegui’s eleven goals in twenty-four goals in a blue shirt means that the Al-Qasidah forward could get the nod in this game, with Giacomo Raspadori having bagged a more modest eleven in forty-four matches. Veteran forward Matteo Politano’s form for Italy means that he might get a chance to operate in attack.
There could be goals emanating from midfield. Nicolo Barella has scored ten goals across sixty-seven matches and the Inter Milan player will certainly be seeking out attacking positions. Inter team-mate Davide Frattesi has also scored eight goals for his country and we think he could be worth a look.
Erling Haaland’s goal return is incredible for club and country. Fifty-one goals have been scored across forty-six games and he’s a massive threat against any opponent. Norway have devised a style which takes full advantage of the world’s best forward. He’s not the only player capable of finding the net for the visitors.
Alexander Sorloth has an impressive strike rate for his country. Twenty-four goals have been notched across sixty-six games, with the Atletico Madrid forward likely to operate in tandem with Haaland and he is sure to be presented with chances.