Match Result: Poland v Netherlands
Poland managed to land a 1-1 draw away to Netherlands in early September and it’s something of a surprise that they’re such big outsiders to land a victory on Friday night. They entertain the Dutch in the hope that they can draw level with their opponents at the top of Group G, with the defence looking stout to the extent that just four goals have been conceded in six clashes.
The Poles began with home wins against Lithuania and Malta, both of which were far from convincing. However, they were playing against defensive teams. That was followed by a 2-1 defeat in Finland, although their unexpected point in Rotterdam came when Matty Cash was able to cancel out the opener that was scored by Denzel Dumfries.
Since then, there was a 3-1 victory against Finland before a 2-0 success against Lithuania. However, there’s no denying that this match is a tough test when you consider the calibre of the Netherlands team. The Dutch have enjoyed five wins aside from that draw at home to Poland where they were unable to put the game to bed.
The scoring power of the Netherlands is undeniable considering that twenty-two have been bagged across six matches. They scored a couple of quickfire goals to claim the spoils away to Finland, although it’s worth noting that they were pushed unexpectedly close by Lithuania when recording a 3-2 success in Kaunas.
Ronald Koeman’s side might have hit their stride based on successive 4-0 wins in October. The first was away to Malta before a more convincing success by that scoreline against Finland. This team have the ability to blow any opposition away although we can’t get away from the fact that home advantage will play a big part for Poland.
Goals Under/Over
The Over 2.5 Goals selection is trading as the 1.66 favourite. It’s about right that there’s a 60% chance of three or more goals being scored. The Netherlands have bagged twenty-two across six World Cup qualifying matches. While some of the opposition have been modest, Koeman’s side are generally free-scoring and there’s a lot of firepower within the ranks.
Poland have been altogether more modest in terms of goal output. Ten goals scored and four conceded across six games. They generally run a tight defensive ship and have earned clean sheets against Lithuania twice and Malta. However, the Poles went over the 2.5 goals line in both encounters against Finland and they really need to win this clash.
That victory would give them an outside chance of winning the section. They are guaranteed a win in Malta in their following game, so they can go for the jugular and that could lead to an entertaining encounter.
BTTS
We’re leaning towards BTTS Yes in this game. Netherlands are averaging more than three goals per qualifying match right now. They put four past a reasonable Finland side last time out and there are lots of players who can find the net. Memphis Depay has an excellent scoring record for his country, with the Corinthians forward averaging a goal every two games.
Poland continue to be over-reliant on Robert Lewandowski when it comes to scoring goals, with the team only racking up a modest ten in the space of six encounters. There’s also the fact that they don’t concede many goals. The defence has only shipped four during qualifying although we feel as though they’ll have to go for it in this match.
The most that Finland can manage points-wise is thirteen which is a total that the Poles already have. Therefore, the latter have a safe game against Malta to ensure that they secure a play-off berth at the very least. That means an attacking approach could be on the cards in this clash and it could lead to a high-scoring encounter.
First Goalscorer
Memphis Depay has notched seven goals for his country during World Cup qualifying, with the 31-year-old having enjoyed an interesting career. The forward is now on the books with Brazilian side Corinthians although seems to enjoy coming across to Europe to represent his country and he certainly has the trust of Ronald Koeman.
The fact that Depay averages better than a goal every two games is quite telling. There are also a couple of other players who can make an impact, with Donyell Malen and Cody Gakpo having both registered three goals apiece during qualifying. The latter has been in and out with Liverpool but there’s no denying his prowess in an orange shirt.
We also know that Denzel Dumfries likes to get forward and the Inter Milan wing-back has scored eleven times for his country. Virgil van Dijk is capable of attacking the ball from set pieces to good effect. However, we should also consider a certain Barcelona forward who is going to be spearheading the attack for Poland.
The striker is keen to reach 100 goals for his country and currently sits on 87. It’s a fair goal return from 161 appearances and the 37-year-old will be bidding to feature in one final World Cup, with Robert Lewandowski capable of scoring against any opponent.