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How accurate are the Canada - CFL odds?

The closing prices of 470 finished games since Fri 6 Aug 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

470 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 65% 304 of 470 games
  • Market Brier score 0.430 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 95.3% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 470 Fri 6 Aug 2021 to Mon 12 Oct 2026

11 of the 481 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

20-30% chance: happened 22.6% of 106 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.9% of 169 selections 40-50% chance: happened 47.9% of 169 selections 50-60% chance: happened 52.0% of 173 selections 60-70% chance: happened 65.1% of 169 selections 70-80% chance: happened 77.4% of 106 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 106 25.1% 22.6% -2.5 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 169 35.2% 34.9% -0.3 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 169 45.0% 47.9% +2.9 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 173 54.9% 52.0% -2.9 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 169 64.8% 65.1% +0.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 106 74.9% 77.4% +2.5 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 55.2% 54.7% -0.5 pts
Away win 44.8% 45.3% +0.5 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 470 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Bet365 391 0.419 0.000 95.8%
Unibet 394 0.438 +0.003 94.8%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Canada CFL odds?
Across 470 finished Canada CFL games since 2021, the closing favourite won 65% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 55.2% on average and home wins happened 54.7% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.430 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Bet365 at 0.419. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 4.7% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Canada - CFL page, every game behind these figures in the Canada - CFL results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.