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How accurate are the Korea - Korean League odds?

The closing prices of 959 finished games since Thu 18 Apr 2024, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

959 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 61% 583 of 959 games
  • Market Brier score 0.464 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 94.8% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 959 Thu 18 Apr 2024 to Wed 14 Oct 2026

1,041 of the 2,000 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

20-30% chance: happened 25.6% of 82 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.0% of 324 selections 40-50% chance: happened 45.7% of 532 selections 50-60% chance: happened 54.3% of 538 selections 60-70% chance: happened 66.3% of 323 selections 70-80% chance: happened 73.5% of 83 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 82 25.6% 25.6% 0.0 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 324 35.9% 34.0% -1.9 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 532 45.0% 45.7% +0.7 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 538 54.9% 54.3% -0.6 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 323 64.0% 66.3% +2.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 83 74.3% 73.5% -0.8 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 53.3% 51.2% -2.1 pts
Away win 46.7% 48.8% +2.1 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 959 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 918 0.462 0.000 94.4%
Bet365 565 0.474 +0.004 95.9%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Korea Korean League odds?
Across 959 finished Korea Korean League games since 2024, the closing favourite won 61% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 53.3% on average and home wins happened 51.2% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.464 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.462. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 5.2% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Korea - Korean League page, every game behind these figures in the Korea - Korean League results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.