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How accurate are the ICC Twenty20 World Cup odds?

The closing prices of 189 finished games since Sun 17 Oct 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

189 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 75% 142 of 189 games
  • Market Brier score 0.352 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.500
  • Average closing payout 95.2% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 189 Sun 17 Oct 2021 to Sun 8 Mar 2026

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 7.5% of 40 selections 10-20% chance: happened 16.2% of 37 selections 20-30% chance: happened 30.3% of 33 selections 30-40% chance: happened 33.3% of 48 selections 40-50% chance: happened 38.7% of 31 selections 50-60% chance: happened 61.3% of 31 selections 60-70% chance: happened 66.7% of 48 selections 70-80% chance: happened 69.7% of 33 selections 80-90% chance: happened 83.8% of 37 selections 90-100% chance: happened 92.5% of 40 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 40 6.6% 7.5% +0.9 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 37 14.2% 16.2% +2.0 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 33 25.8% 30.3% +4.5 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 48 35.6% 33.3% -2.3 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 31 44.8% 38.7% -6.1 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 31 55.2% 61.3% +6.1 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 48 64.4% 66.7% +2.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 33 74.2% 69.7% -4.5 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 37 85.8% 83.8% -2.0 pts
90-100% 1.11 or shorter 40 93.4% 92.5% -0.9 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 64.0% 64.6% +0.6 pts
Away win 36.0% 35.4% -0.6 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 189 games against the share of games it won. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 110 0.355 -0.013 95.0%
Bet365 188 0.364 +0.010 95.3%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are ICC Twenty20 World Cup odds?
Across 189 finished ICC Twenty20 World Cup games since 2021, the closing favourite won 75% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 64.0% on average and home wins happened 64.6% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.352 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.355. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons. The bookmaker's margin, about 4.8% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the ICC Twenty20 World Cup page, every game behind these figures in the ICC Twenty20 World Cup results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.