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How accurate are the Argentina - Primera odds?

The closing prices of 1,987 finished games since Sat 2 Jul 2022, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,987 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 45% 886 of 1,987 games
  • Market Brier score 0.629 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 94.0% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,987 Sat 2 Jul 2022 to Fri 16 Oct 2026

13 of the 2,000 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 14.9% of 47 selections 10-20% chance: happened 13.7% of 496 selections 20-30% chance: happened 26.8% of 1,799 selections 30-40% chance: happened 33.7% of 2,288 selections 40-50% chance: happened 43.4% of 814 selections 50-60% chance: happened 56.5% of 379 selections 60-70% chance: happened 59.0% of 100 selections 70-80% chance: happened 84.4% of 32 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 47 7.6% 14.9% +7.3 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 496 16.5% 13.7% -2.8 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 1,799 26.2% 26.8% +0.6 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 2,288 33.7% 33.7% 0.0 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 814 44.5% 43.4% -1.1 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 379 54.3% 56.5% +2.2 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 100 63.6% 59.0% -4.6 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 32 74.6% 84.4% +9.8 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 41.6% 43.4% +1.8 pts
Draw 30.6% 31.3% +0.7 pts
Away win 27.8% 25.3% -2.5 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,987 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Bet365 1,942 0.630 +0.001 94.4%
Unibet 1,630 0.634 0.000 93.5%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are Argentina Primera odds?
Across 1,987 finished Argentina Primera games since 2022, the closing favourite won 45% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 41.6% on average and home wins happened 43.4% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.629 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Bet365 at 0.630. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 6.0% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the Argentina - Primera page, every game behind these figures in the Argentina - Primera results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.