Napoli v Arsenal Betting Markets
On Wednesday 9 September, the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona will play host to a Champions League Match Day 1 showdown between Napoli and Arsenal. The Serie A team finished second in their domestic standings last term, averaging two points per match. That meant that they comfortably qualified for this competition and the ambition will be to go deep in the tournament.
Napoli are priced at 3.90 to claim a victory and this gives an implied probability that the Italian side have around a 25% chance of landing three points. The Azzurri were able to win thirteen of their nineteen home matches in Serie A last term, although they were held to a draw on four occasions and they also suffered two defeats.
Max Allegri has replaced Antonio Conte and the experienced coach will aim to engineer a victory over one of the tournament favourites. Early signs aren't hugely encouraging considering that a 2-1 home defeat was suffered against Como at the end of August. Napoli had two shots on target compared to their opponents' six and that laid bare the shortcomings of this side.
Arsenal will head to Naples in search of a victory. The Gunners were able to claim 3-0 wins against Manchester City and Coventry City to enjoy a strong start to the campaign. Ezri Konsa may well take his place in defence for this game, with Bruno Guimaraes also potentially coming into the line-up to add some steel to the midfield.
We know that the visitors will run a tight ship although a draw would suit them fine for what is one of their toughest fixtures out of the eight scheduled. We know all about Arsenal's set piece threat and the bookies make them an odds-on shot to claim an early victory in this competition.
Goals Under/Over
There's nothing between the Unders and Overs as far as the 2.5 Goals line is concerned. The argument for Under 2.5 is that Arsenal are very tight defensively. The Gunners conceded just four goals across eight group games in the Champions League last term. That achievement was outstanding although they were able to find the net plenty of times when recording twenty-three.
Arsenal claimed a 2-0 victory away to Athletic Bilbao and then a 3-0 winning scoreline away to Slavia Prague. The same win was achieved when landing a 3-0 victory at Club Brugge. The only team that actually scored against the Gunners when they took to the road at Inter before winning by a 3-1 scoreline.
Napoli did not have a good experience in the competition last term. They were only able to win two games out of the eight played. They were only able to score nine times and they might run into brick walls against a formidable Arsenal defence.
BTTS
BTTS Yes is slightly shorter than BTTS No. However, we're slightly sceptical that Napoli will be able to create too many chances against a difficult Arsenal side. They demonstrated recently against a decent team like Como that it was a tough ordeal fashioning goalscoring opportunities. Although Rasmus Hojlund was able to score, then chances were few and far between.
Napoli had a series of mixed results in Europe last term. There was a massive defeat when going down 6-2 away at PSV Eindhoven and yet this outcome was followed by a goalless draw against Eintracht Frankfurt. They finished the group stage with a 3-2 home defeat against Chelsea and perhaps a similar scoreline is on the cards here.
Nevertheless, the early evidence is that Arsenal won't give up too many chances. Their XG against Manchester City at Wembley was low in terms of goals against. Clean sheets are often a modus operandi of the London outfit and that could see them shut out a Napoli side who are still finding their feet under Allegri.
First Goalscorer
Bukayo Saka is our idea of a good first scorer bet for this Champions League showdown. We can't envisage a scenario where Mikel Arteta leaves the player out and he will offer a lively threat from the right wing. The England international carries plenty of danger from a wide position, with the Emirates graduate also likely to be on spot kick duties.
Perhaps Viktor Gyokeres will earn a rare start ahead of Kai Havertz. Whichever player is given the nod is likely to have chances to score. The German may continue simply because of the aerial threat offered, with Christos Tzolis potentially someone who can offer a threat from the other flank if Saka gets marked out of the game.
Napoli will hope that former Manchester United man Rasmus Hojlund is able to fire a goal or two against Arsenal. Then there is ex-Manchester City man Kevin de Bruyne who is capable of firing from range. Veteran forward Matteo Politano could also cause a stir, although we'd rather veer towards an Arsenal defender at a bigger price. This may include Gabriel or Riccardo Calafiori.