Match Result
There aren’t many Newcastle home matches where the Magpies are priced as big as 2.90 to win. Eddie Howe’s side have odds which imply that they only have a 35% probability of a first leg success. Beyond this, the Tyneside outfit are a 3.50 chance to qualify for the quarter final stage which is roughly a 29% chance of going through.
It’s certainly been heavier going than normal at St James’ Park for a Newcastle team who at the time of writing have only got a 50% win rate in front of their own fans. They might have plundered twenty-six goals but they’ve also conceded twenty-three. There was a recent 3-2 home reverse against Everton and this game comes after tough home clashes against Manchester United and Manchester City.
The sides have already met this season. This match took place on 18 September where a Marcus Rashford double was enough to help Barca to a 2-1 victory, with Anthony Gordon scoring a late consolation goal. There’s a chance that we might see the same outcome when the Spanish La Liga leaders return to the north-east of England.
Barcelona have racked up sixty-four points from their twenty-six La Liga games played this season, with Hansi Flick’s team having won all thirteen Nou Camp matches. On the road, they have landed eight successes from thirteen road trips. They’re a scorer of thirty goals and conceded twenty, although we should note that Barca don’t technically need to win the game.
Barcelona experienced a little wobble when losing a Copa del Rey clash at Atletico Madrid 4-0 before a derby defeat against Girona. However, they have since clocked up three successive home wins, scoring ten goals in the process. There’s a nagging doubt that they might not find things as easy on the road.
Goals Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals happened in the first meeting between the pair this season. However, it was goalless until nearly the hour mark when Marcus Rashford broke the deadlock. Nine minutes later the former Manchester United man doubled Barcelona’s advantage although it looked to be heading towards a 2-0 away victory until Anthony Gordon scored at the death.
However, Newcastle and Barcelona had six and five shots on target apiece in the clash and the bookies have the Overs as the strong favourite. Odds of 1.50 means that there’s an implied probability of 66% that we see three or more netted. We’re talking about two attack-minded sides going for goals.
Since winning 2-0 away to Racing in the Copa del Rey, the past twelve Barcelona matches in all competitions have seen three or more goals scored. Newcastle are also involved in their fair share of high-octane affairs.
BTTS
The Champions League bookies think there’s a very likely chance of both teams finding the net in this European Cup showdown. Odds of 1.44 mean a high implied probability that the net will bulge at both ends. It’s rare for Newcastle to draw a blank at home but also unlikely that they achieve a shutout this season.
The previously tighter defence has not been repeated this time around, with the Magpies having shipped twenty-three goals at St James’ Park across fourteen home clashes. However, they do average nearly two per home clash and have lots of players capable of finding the net.
Barcelona are not a team who are drawn in by the trend towards profiting chiefly through set pieces. They favour an open and expansive style of play and that means aiming to outscore each opponent that they meet. On the flip side, there have been several recent encounters where BTTS No has happened. They also came within a whisker of achieving a victory to nil when they played at St James’ Park in September.
Our preference is for another Barca win and both teams to find the net. It could descend into a first leg shootout, especially as Newcastle will feel they need an advantage heading to the Nou Camp.
First Goalscorer
Marc Bernal is the latest teenager to break through for Barcelona and the Spaniard could be a decent option here. He’s started to find a scoring touch in front of goal, finding the net against Mallorca and Levante in recent 3-0 wins. More recently, he was able to bag a brace when facing Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey and could be a good alternative to the favourites.
Raphinha also returned to the scoresheet in the above game and the Brazilian has fourteen for the campaign, although many might instead opt for Lamine Yamal. The superstar has notched a hat-trick against Villarreal and went on a scoring spree from the end of January which saw the forward score in five consecutive encounters.
Then we have the reliable Robert Lewandowski who is approaching twenty goals for the campaign, although Newcastle have their own players capable of finding the net. Jacob Murphy was on the scoresheet against Qarabag and Everton, although namesake Jacob Ramsey has also notched a couple of recent goals.
Anthony Gordon made history when scoring four times against Qarabag in the space of one game, with the winger having found the consolation goal against Barca in the previous match. Nick Woltemade is also worthy of consideration and could be capable of firing against Barca.