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How accurate are the England - FA Cup odds?

The closing prices of 1,156 finished games since Tue 7 Sep 2021, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,156 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 56% 648 of 1,156 games
  • Market Brier score 0.561 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 92.4% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,156 Tue 7 Sep 2021 to Tue 6 Oct 2026

135 of the 1,291 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 7.7% of 168 selections 10-20% chance: happened 14.8% of 522 selections 20-30% chance: happened 24.3% of 1,326 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.2% of 441 selections 40-50% chance: happened 46.6% of 371 selections 50-60% chance: happened 56.1% of 285 selections 60-70% chance: happened 63.3% of 177 selections 70-80% chance: happened 78.2% of 110 selections 80-90% chance: happened 91.4% of 58 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 168 6.9% 7.7% +0.8 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 522 15.7% 14.8% -0.9 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 1,326 25.1% 24.3% -0.8 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 441 34.7% 34.2% -0.5 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 371 44.8% 46.6% +1.8 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 285 54.7% 56.1% +1.4 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 177 64.6% 63.3% -1.3 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 110 74.5% 78.2% +3.7 pts
80-90% 1.11 to 1.25 58 84.4% 91.4% +7.0 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 44.2% 44.9% +0.7 pts
Draw 23.1% 21.7% -1.4 pts
Away win 32.7% 33.4% +0.7 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,156 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Unibet 1,034 0.555 -0.001 91.9%
Bet365 854 0.561 +0.004 93.4%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are England FA Cup odds?
Across 1,156 finished England FA Cup games since 2021, the closing favourite won 56% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 44.2% on average and home wins happened 44.9% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.561 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Unibet at 0.555. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 7.6% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the England - FA Cup page, every game behind these figures in the England - FA Cup results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.