Newcastle vs Manchester City Betting Markets
Newcastle United will be hoping to get some kind of revenge on Manchester City in this FA Cup last sixteen clash. They have home advantage when coming up against a side who will be familiar opponents considering this is the fifth time that the sides are meeting this term. The Magpies are not without a chance and will draw on the fact that they beat the Cityzens in a Premier League encounter in November.
However, since then, Pep Guardiola's side have won the three subsequent encounters. They won both Carabao Cup semi-final clashes to land a 5-1 aggregate victory. There was also a meeting at the Etihad Stadium in the Premier League where Eddie Howe's side competed favourably when registering the same number of shots on target (seven) despite losing 2-1.
The bookies make Manchester City the even money favourites which implies a win probability of 50%. The north-west side don't tend to lose too many matches and they've triumphed in seven of the previous eight clashes in all competitions. The only time that they failed to win was giving away a 2-0 lead at Tottenham.
Based on the stats alone, City could be a decent shout at evens. They are getting to that stage of the season where they are focused on landing silverware and winning key games such as this one could hold the key. The slight downside is that their overall away form for the season means they have won less than 50% of their away games in the top flight.
Newcastle have won more than 50% of encounters at St James' Park and this competition is clearly a priority for a side who had the taste of silverware last time out. The reality is that the FA Cup is now the only competition that the Tyneside outfit can realistically win. The tie has to be decided on the night.
Goals Under/Over
There have been four previous meetings where we can look through the data regarding goals scored. In three of these encounters, the number of goals has been three or more. In the most recent Premier League clash, both teams demonstrated plenty of attacking intent and there were seven shots on target registered by each of the sides.
There were also nine shots off target across the two teams. In a one-off game such as this, it's likely that a more attacking approach will be adopted in an attempt to try and make progress and avoid the potential of extra-time and penalties. There's also the fact that the past eight Newcastle matches in all competitions have seen three goals or more.
Similarly, in five of the past six Manchester City games in all competitions, we have seen Over 2.5 Goals. That explains why the odds are 1.57 but it could definitely be worth considering in a Bet Builder.
BTTS
The BTTS Yes odds are trading at 1.50 which suggests a roughly 66% chance of both teams finding the net. Newcastle are currently experiencing a string of games where this outcome has happened. Since losing 2-0 at home to Aston Villa at the end of January, both teams scoring has been a consistent trait across all matches.
Seventeen goals have been registered across the past six Newcastle games in all competitions. It's quite a ratio although slightly skewed by a double header against Qarabag where the Magpies were able to find their scoring boots. Even so, it's hard to imagine either team coming up short here.
Manchester City did manage to achieve a 2-0 first leg win at St James' Park in the Carabao Cup when it came to that semi-final tie. There have also been recent bloodless victories against Fulham and Salford, with Pep Guardiola's side more likely to keep a clean sheet than their opponents. However, a City win and both teams to score would be our preference where an attractive price can be landed.
First Goalscorer
Erling Haaland has a massive haul of forty-two goals for the season. The Manchester City forward will lead the line in this FA Cup last sixteen clash, although his strike rate has significantly slowed in recent weeks. It didn't stop the Norwegian finding the net at Anfield when converting a penalty before notching against Fulham.
Nico O'Reilly was the scorer of a brace against Newcastle in a Premier League clash and the defender certainly plays in an advanced position. This came after him finding the net against Fulham and we may well see him getting shots on target here. Omar Marmoush was able to score a brace against the Magpies in a recent Carabao Cup encounter and there could be goals for the Egyptian here.
As for Newcastle, Nick Woltemade may lead the line and his aerial threat certainly gives the Magpies a lively threat. The German's goal rate has slowed down dramatically in recent months although he was full of goals in the early part of the campaign and also found the net at Villa Park in a recent FA Cup clash to end his drought.
Anthony Gordon could be on penalty duties and is often the man for the big occasion, with those four goals away to Qarabag being supplemented by strikes from Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy.