Skip to main content

How accurate are the English - League One odds?

The closing prices of 1,987 finished games since Sat 28 Jan 2023, set against what happened: the chance the market gave, with the bookmakers' margin removed, next to how often it came in. A record of what the market did, not a tip.

The market's record

1,987 games, 2 bookmakers
  • Closing favourite won 50% 1,001 of 1,987 games
  • Market Brier score 0.605 0 is perfect; a coin flip scores 0.667
  • Average closing payout 92.9% 100% minus the bookmakers' margin
  • Games covered 1,987 Sat 28 Jan 2023 to Thu 15 Oct 2026

13 of the 2,000 games finished in that time are left out: no bookmaker had a closing price on every outcome.

Market chance against what happened

0-10% chance: happened 5.7% of 35 selections 10-20% chance: happened 12.8% of 462 selections 20-30% chance: happened 24.8% of 2,676 selections 30-40% chance: happened 34.3% of 1,244 selections 40-50% chance: happened 47.7% of 889 selections 50-60% chance: happened 59.4% of 436 selections 60-70% chance: happened 66.3% of 172 selections 70-80% chance: happened 81.4% of 43 selections 100% 0%
Market said 0%100%
Happened
Market chancePriceSelectionsMarket saidHappenedDiff
0-10% 10.00 or longer 35 8.0% 5.7% -2.3 pts
10-20% 5.00 to 10.00 462 16.5% 12.8% -3.7 pts
20-30% 3.33 to 5.00 2,676 26.3% 24.8% -1.5 pts
30-40% 2.50 to 3.33 1,244 34.3% 34.3% 0.0 pts
40-50% 2.00 to 2.50 889 44.5% 47.7% +3.2 pts
50-60% 1.67 to 2.00 436 54.6% 59.4% +4.8 pts
60-70% 1.43 to 1.67 172 63.8% 66.3% +2.5 pts
70-80% 1.25 to 1.43 43 73.9% 81.4% +7.5 pts

Every priced outcome of every game is one selection. "Market said" is the bookmakers' average implied probability with the margin removed; "Happened" is how often that outcome came in. On the diagonal the market was right on average; above it, that kind of result happened more often than the prices said. Bands with fewer than 30 selections are left out.

Home, draw and away

OutcomeMarket saidHappenedDiff
Home win 42.3% 43.7% +1.4 pts
Draw 26.8% 25.0% -1.8 pts
Away win 31.0% 31.3% +0.3 pts

The market's average closing chance for each outcome over all 1,987 games against the share of games it won, settled on the regular-time score. "Home" is the first-named side.

Bookmaker accuracy

lower is better
BookmakerGamesBrier scorevs market averagePayout
Bet365 1,945 0.608 +0.004 93.8%
Unibet 1,603 0.608 -0.001 91.7%

Each bookmaker's own closing prices, margin removed, scored against the results of the games it priced; "vs market average" compares it with the bookmakers' average on the same games, so a negative figure means its prices were the closer. Bookmakers with fewer than 50 priced games are left out. Differences of a few thousandths are noise; a much higher score usually means the bookmaker's last price was captured well before the start, so it is the price in our archive being scored, not the trader.

Odds accuracy FAQ

How accurate are English League One odds?
Across 1,987 finished English League One games since 2023, the closing favourite won 50% of the time. The market's closing chance, with the bookmakers' margin removed, gave the home side 42.3% on average and home wins happened 43.7% of the time. The bands above show the same comparison price by price: a well-calibrated market has outcomes happening about as often as its prices say.
What is a Brier score?
The squared distance between the chances a bookmaker's prices gave and what happened, averaged over games: 0 would be perfect foresight, and on a three-way market a coin-flip price scores 0.667. The market average's closing prices score 0.605 in this league; the lowest single bookmaker is Bet365 at 0.608. Differences of a few thousandths between bookmakers are noise, not skill.
Does a well-calibrated market mean the odds cannot be beaten?
Calibration says the market is right on average, not on every game. A band where outcomes happened more often than the prices said is where the closing market under-priced that kind of result over these seasons, which is often the draw or the outsider. The bookmaker's margin, about 7.1% here, still has to be cleared: the closing line value calculator shows what a price needs to beat.

See the league's fixtures, results and the favourites' recent record on the English - League One page, every game behind these figures in the English - League One results and closing odds by season, or work out a price's implied chance and closing line value with the betting calculators.